NBA games

CHA @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
104–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA23222534104
MIA22343524115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home MIA
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Terry Rozier S 37 28 3 7
Gordon Hayward S 35 20 5 7
Miles Bridges S 34 19 5 4
Brandon Miller S 39 18 2 3
Bryce McGowens 18 7 3 1
Nick Richards S 40 6 10 0
Ish Smith 17 6 2 4
JT Thor 16 0 1 0
P.J. Washington 4 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Duncan Robinson S 40 23 2 3
Kyle Lowry S 24 17 2 1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 33 17 6 8
Jimmy Butler III S 29 15 7 10
Jamal Cain 29 14 3 1
Thomas Bryant 16 11 9 0
Caleb Martin S 36 9 6 4
Orlando Robinson S 12 6 4 1
Kevin Love 20 3 8 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Terry Rozier · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Terry Rozier makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
13%
2 Terry Rozier CHA
11%
3 Gordon Hayward CHA
10%
4 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
5 Jimmy Butler III MIA
9%
6 Caleb Martin MIA
9%
7 Nick Richards CHA
9%
8 Kyle Lowry MIA
8%
9 Brandon Miller CHA
7%
10 Orlando Robinson MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
28%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
19%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Terry Rozier CHA 24.8 3.8 8.5
2 Jimmy Butler III MIA 24.6 4.9 5.4
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 23.1 10.4 4.1
4 Miles Bridges CHA 20.7 6.5 2.8
5 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 19.1 4.3 3.4
6 Gordon Hayward CHA 16.8 4.9 4.9
7 Duncan Robinson MIA 16.6 3.1 3.7
8 Brandon Miller CHA 16.5 4.2 3.0
9 Caleb Martin MIA 15.5 5.1 3.0
10 Kyle Lowry MIA 12.7 4.2 3.9
11 P.J. Washington CHA 11.6 4.9 2.7
12 Kevin Love MIA 9.4 6.3 2.5
13 Nick Richards CHA 8.5 6.4 0.9
14 Orlando Robinson MIA 8.0 5.5 2.2
15 R.J. Hampton MIA 6.1 2.1 2.5
16 Cole Swider MIA 6.0 1.1 0.9
17 Jamal Cain MIA 5.7 3.5 0.7
18 Bryce McGowens CHA 5.2 1.7 1.0
19 Frank Ntilikina CHA 4.9 1.8 2.2
20 Ish Smith CHA 4.8 1.6 3.0
21 JT Thor CHA 4.3 2.0 0.6
22 Thomas Bryant MIA 4.3 3.5 0.7
23 Theo Maledon CHA 3.2 1.1 1.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.