NBA games

NO @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
142–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO28473532142
WSH30342929122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home WSH
74% 26%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 31 40 2 3
Trey Murphy III 33 27 6 4
CJ McCollum S 32 22 3 6
Naji Marshall 28 16 4 7
Jonas Valanciunas S 33 16 18 3
Jose Alvarado 18 7 2 1
Herbert Jones S 20 6 2 1
Dyson Daniels S 16 2 4 2
Cody Zeller 5 2 0 2
Jordan Hawkins 19 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 30 27 7 4
Bilal Coulibaly 32 16 5 1
Daniel Gafford S 24 13 7 0
Deni Avdija S 30 13 5 7
Corey Kispert 21 12 3 0
Jordan Poole S 31 11 1 4
Danilo Gallinari 16 9 1 1
Jared Butler 13 8 1 4
Tyus Jones S 26 6 0 4
Patrick Baldwin Jr. 4 5 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Daniel Gafford · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Daniel Gafford makes 1-foot dunk (Deni Avdija assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH
15%
2 CJ McCollum NO
14%
3 Jonas Valanciunas NO
12%
4 Jordan Poole WSH
11%
5 Daniel Gafford WSH
10%
6 Brandon Ingram NO
9%
7 Mike Muscala WSH
8%
8 Deni Avdija WSH
7%
9 Herbert Jones NO
7%
10 Tyus Jones WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
28%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram NO 24.2 4.9 6.3
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH 23.8 6.0 6.2
3 CJ McCollum NO 21.6 4.6 5.8
4 Jordan Poole WSH 19.4 3.1 3.6
5 Jonas Valanciunas NO 16.4 10.3 2.4
6 Herbert Jones NO 14.2 5.3 3.3
7 Trey Murphy III NO 14.0 3.5 1.6
8 Tyus Jones WSH 13.6 3.7 4.8
9 Daniel Gafford WSH 11.8 7.4 1.9
10 Deni Avdija WSH 11.7 5.3 3.8
11 Corey Kispert WSH 10.9 2.8 1.7
12 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 10.6 4.1 2.1
13 Jordan Hawkins NO 9.3 3.0 1.5
14 Naji Marshall NO 7.6 4.8 2.0
15 Jose Alvarado NO 6.9 2.6 2.2
16 Dyson Daniels NO 6.6 4.3 2.0
17 Danilo Gallinari WSH 6.1 3.1 1.2
18 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 4.5 2.8 1.1
19 Jared Butler WSH 4.2 1.3 1.6
20 Mike Muscala WSH 4.1 2.3 1.0
21 Kira Lewis Jr. NO 3.4 1.1 1.4
22 Cody Zeller NO 3.1 3.3 0.8
23 Anthony Gill WSH 3.0 1.9 0.6
24 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 2.6 1.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.