NBA games

PHI @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
129–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI39313425129
DET26302431111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home DET
85% 15%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 31 41 11 5
Tobias Harris S 26 21 7 1
Kelly Oubre Jr. 23 17 3 1
De'Anthony Melton S 21 10 6 1
Tyrese Maxey S 33 9 4 9
Jaden Springer 7 5 0 2
Robert Covington 17 5 6 2
Paul Reed 13 5 4 0
Nicolas Batum S 20 5 1 2
Marcus Morris Sr. 16 4 8 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bojan Bogdanovic S 33 33 1 2
Cade Cunningham S 30 21 6 7
James Wiseman 16 10 3 0
Ausar Thompson S 30 10 8 3
Marcus Sasser 5 8 0 1
Kevin Knox II 10 7 2 2
Jaden Ivey 21 7 2 1
Killian Hayes S 32 6 3 6
Isaiah Stewart S 22 4 4 2
Alec Burks 13 3 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bojan Bogdanovic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Bojan Bogdanovic makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Cade Cunningham assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Joel Embiid PHI
17%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
3 De'Anthony Melton PHI
9%
4 Tyrese Maxey PHI
9%
5 Bojan Bogdanovic DET
8%
6 Marvin Bagley III DET
8%
7 Killian Hayes DET
8%
8 Tobias Harris PHI
8%
9 Ausar Thompson DET
7%
10 Isaiah Stewart DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
53%
Jumper
24%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 33.2 10.9 7.4
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 25.6 3.5 6.6
3 Cade Cunningham DET 24.7 4.5 7.7
4 Bojan Bogdanovic DET 19.5 3.1 3.7
5 De'Anthony Melton PHI 16.6 4.4 3.8
6 Tobias Harris PHI 13.7 5.1 2.9
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 13.1 4.9 1.5
8 Jaden Ivey DET 13.0 3.5 2.9
9 Isaiah Stewart DET 10.7 6.3 1.6
10 Ausar Thompson DET 10.1 6.0 1.5
11 Killian Hayes DET 9.9 3.3 3.8
12 Patrick Beverley PHI 8.8 3.0 3.1
13 Nicolas Batum PHI 8.5 4.3 2.2
14 Marvin Bagley III DET 7.9 4.8 1.0
15 Alec Burks DET 7.4 1.9 1.1
16 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI 6.8 2.8 1.0
17 Isaiah Livers DET 6.8 2.1 1.5
18 Kevin Knox II DET 6.5 2.5 1.0
19 Robert Covington PHI 6.4 4.6 1.1
20 Paul Reed PHI 5.8 4.1 1.2
21 James Wiseman DET 5.1 3.5 0.8
22 Danuel House Jr. PHI 5.0 1.7 1.1
23 Marcus Sasser DET 5.0 1.1 1.9
24 Jaden Springer PHI 4.9 2.3 1.1
25 Mo Bamba PHI 4.4 3.1 0.7
26 Joe Harris DET 3.9 1.0 0.7
27 KJ Martin PHI 2.6 1.5 0.7
28 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 2.6 1.0 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.