NBA games

SAC @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
99–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC2424222999
LAC32382920119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home LAC
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keegan Murray S 31 17 7 1
Domantas Sabonis S 26 15 10 3
De'Aaron Fox S 25 14 3 3
Sasha Vezenkov 20 9 3 3
Malik Monk 22 8 0 5
Kessler Edwards 8 7 0 0
Chris Duarte 12 6 2 1
JaVale McGee 6 6 1 0
Jordan Ford 8 5 1 1
Kevin Huerter S 17 3 4 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 31 31 4 3
James Harden S 28 15 6 7
Norman Powell 27 15 1 2
Terance Mann S 30 10 5 2
Paul George S 16 9 6 1
Russell Westbrook 20 8 7 3
Daniel Theis 16 8 3 0
Kobe Brown 24 7 6 0
Bones Hyland 9 6 1 1
Ivica Zubac S 23 6 9 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Terance Mann · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Terance Mann makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paul George LAC
19%
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC
13%
3 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
4 De'Aaron Fox SAC
10%
5 Kawhi Leonard LAC
9%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
9%
7 Harrison Barnes SAC
7%
8 Kevin Huerter SAC
7%
9 James Harden LAC
7%
10 Terance Mann LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
33%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
20%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 27.6 4.5 6.7
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 25.7 6.4 4.0
3 Paul George LAC 22.3 5.8 5.0
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 19.9 11.4 6.6
5 James Harden LAC 18.5 4.4 8.1
6 Malik Monk SAC 16.8 3.1 4.2
7 Ivica Zubac LAC 14.8 10.4 1.5
8 Keegan Murray SAC 13.7 5.1 1.8
9 Harrison Barnes SAC 11.8 4.0 1.9
10 Norman Powell LAC 11.5 2.6 1.3
11 Russell Westbrook LAC 10.5 6.5 4.5
12 Terance Mann LAC 10.1 3.4 1.7
13 Kevin Huerter SAC 10.0 3.6 2.3
14 Xavier Moon LAC 9.9 3.6 3.2
15 Daniel Theis LAC 8.0 4.8 1.3
16 Trey Lyles SAC 7.7 4.1 1.4
17 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 5.7 2.9 0.7
18 Bones Hyland LAC 5.5 1.1 1.6
19 Chris Duarte SAC 4.9 2.2 0.9
20 Davion Mitchell SAC 4.6 1.3 1.7
21 Keon Ellis SAC 4.3 1.9 1.0
22 JaVale McGee SAC 3.6 3.7 0.7
23 Kobe Brown LAC 3.1 1.7 0.8
24 Kessler Edwards SAC 2.9 1.3 0.5
25 P.J. Tucker LAC 2.4 1.7 0.7
26 Alex Len SAC 2.2 2.5 0.6
27 Jordan Ford SAC 1.9 0.6 0.3
28 Amir Coffey LAC 1.6 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.