NBA games

GS @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
116–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS25313129116
PHX25283531119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home PHX
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 32 24 5 4
Brandin Podziemski 29 20 11 5
Jonathan Kuminga 29 16 6 0
Chris Paul 30 15 5 11
Dario Saric 20 15 4 1
Moses Moody 24 12 4 0
Klay Thompson S 27 7 5 0
Andrew Wiggins S 15 3 4 1
Trayce Jackson-Davis 7 2 0 0
Draymond Green S 17 2 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 36 32 4 7
Jusuf Nurkic S 31 17 13 7
Jordan Goodwin 30 16 5 6
Bradley Beal S 27 16 3 3
Chimezie Metu S 25 14 5 0
Josh Okogie S 11 10 2 2
Eric Gordon 32 8 0 0
Drew Eubanks 17 3 6 1
Yuta Watanabe 20 3 1 1
Keita Bates-Diop 6 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bradley Beal · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Bradley Beal makes 27-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
13%
2 Bradley Beal PHX
12%
3 Andrew Wiggins GS
11%
4 Devin Booker PHX
10%
5 Klay Thompson GS
9%
6 Kevon Looney GS
8%
7 Draymond Green GS
8%
8 Josh Okogie PHX
8%
9 Keita Bates-Diop PHX
8%
10 Eric Gordon PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
15%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
24%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 27.2 6.3 8.0
2 Stephen Curry GS 26.3 5.6 5.1
3 Klay Thompson GS 16.9 4.4 2.6
4 Bradley Beal PHX 15.9 3.5 3.3
5 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 15.8 10.1 3.1
6 Eric Gordon PHX 15.7 2.8 3.4
7 Andrew Wiggins GS 14.7 5.0 1.7
8 Dario Saric GS 12.1 5.2 2.8
9 Draymond Green GS 11.3 5.8 5.3
10 Jonathan Kuminga GS 10.9 3.9 1.3
11 Brandin Podziemski GS 9.9 5.1 2.3
12 Chris Paul GS 9.1 2.7 5.9
13 Moses Moody GS 8.6 3.7 1.0
14 Kevon Looney GS 5.6 6.6 1.7
15 Josh Okogie PHX 5.6 3.4 1.1
16 Jordan Goodwin PHX 5.5 3.3 1.8
17 Drew Eubanks PHX 5.0 3.4 0.7
18 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 4.9 2.6 0.7
19 Yuta Watanabe PHX 4.6 1.6 0.7
20 Gary Payton II GS 4.1 2.6 0.6
21 Chimezie Metu PHX 3.0 1.5 0.5
22 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 2.6 1.8 0.3
23 Cory Joseph GS 2.6 0.9 1.6
24 Bol Bol PHX 2.6 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.