NBA games

DEN @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
114–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN32253522114
CHI25253026106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home CHI
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Reggie Jackson S 32 25 2 6
Michael Porter Jr. S 32 17 7 0
Julian Strawther 23 16 6 3
Aaron Gordon S 32 14 7 6
Christian Braun 23 13 2 2
DeAndre Jordan 25 9 10 2
Justin Holiday 23 8 1 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 13 4 1 0
Peyton Watson 23 4 1 1
Nikola Jokic S 16 4 9 6
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 35 27 4 8
Nikola Vucevic S 33 26 16 5
DeMar DeRozan S 37 14 4 5
Jevon Carter 15 9 1 2
Ayo Dosunmu S 38 9 3 3
Andre Drummond 14 8 4 0
Patrick Williams S 31 7 2 0
Torrey Craig 19 2 5 1
Terry Taylor 1 2 1 0
Dalen Terry 11 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Reggie Jackson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Reggie Jackson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI
13%
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI
13%
3 Nikola Jokic DEN
12%
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
10%
5 Aaron Gordon DEN
9%
6 Coby White CHI
9%
7 Patrick Williams CHI
8%
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
8%
9 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
8%
10 Alex Caruso CHI
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
34%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 27.9 11.6 9.8
2 DeMar DeRozan CHI 25.2 4.2 6.4
3 Coby White CHI 21.7 4.5 4.8
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 17.8 7.4 2.3
5 Reggie Jackson DEN 17.6 3.4 6.0
6 Nikola Vucevic CHI 16.4 9.8 3.7
7 Patrick Williams CHI 13.8 5.6 1.8
8 Aaron Gordon DEN 13.2 7.3 3.2
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 12.6 2.6 3.0
10 Alex Caruso CHI 10.3 3.2 2.2
11 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 8.4 2.4 2.2
12 Torrey Craig CHI 7.0 4.2 1.1
13 Christian Braun DEN 6.9 3.3 1.5
14 Julian Strawther DEN 5.9 1.7 1.3
15 Andre Drummond CHI 5.5 7.5 0.8
16 Justin Holiday DEN 5.4 1.9 1.3
17 Peyton Watson DEN 5.3 3.0 1.1
18 DeAndre Jordan DEN 5.1 4.2 1.4
19 Jevon Carter CHI 4.6 1.6 1.2
20 Zeke Nnaji DEN 4.2 2.6 0.6
21 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.0 1.3 0.4
22 Dalen Terry CHI 2.6 1.7 0.8
23 Julian Phillips CHI 2.6 1.5 0.7
24 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.3 0.7 0.6
25 Terry Taylor CHI 2.1 1.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.