NBA games

LAL @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
125–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL26353430125
DAL34372234127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home DAL
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 37 37 11 0
LeBron James S 40 33 8 9
Austin Reaves 32 22 5 8
Taurean Prince S 37 15 4 4
D'Angelo Russell S 25 7 2 7
Rui Hachimura 29 7 3 2
Cam Reddish S 22 4 3 2
Max Christie 6 0 0 1
Jaxson Hayes 13 0 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 43 33 6 17
Tim Hardaway Jr. 37 32 3 3
Dante Exum S 36 26 4 3
Grant Williams S 40 19 3 1
Dereck Lively II S 30 8 8 0
Richaun Holmes 15 4 7 2
Seth Curry S 12 3 2 0
Jaden Hardy 19 2 1 1
Markieff Morris 6 0 2 1
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dereck Lively II · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Dereck Lively II makes 5-foot two point shot (Luka Doncic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
12%
2 LeBron James LAL
12%
3 D'Angelo Russell LAL
12%
4 Dereck Lively II DAL
12%
5 Dante Exum DAL
10%
6 Luka Doncic DAL
10%
7 Cam Reddish LAL
8%
8 Seth Curry DAL
8%
9 Grant Williams DAL
8%
10 Taurean Prince LAL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
21%
Layup
52%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 30.2 8.3 9.4
2 Anthony Davis LAL 25.0 13.0 3.9
3 LeBron James LAL 24.2 7.0 6.6
4 Austin Reaves LAL 17.5 4.2 4.7
5 D'Angelo Russell LAL 16.6 3.6 6.3
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 14.4 3.3 1.7
7 Dereck Lively II DAL 10.6 9.3 1.6
8 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.4 3.2 1.5
9 Taurean Prince LAL 9.8 3.3 1.8
10 Gabe Vincent LAL 9.2 1.7 2.5
11 Dante Exum DAL 9.1 3.6 3.1
12 Cam Reddish LAL 8.4 3.0 1.5
13 Max Christie LAL 7.2 3.1 1.5
14 Grant Williams DAL 6.9 3.0 1.8
15 Seth Curry DAL 6.7 2.1 1.3
16 Christian Wood LAL 6.3 5.2 1.0
17 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.9 1.7 1.7
18 A.J. Lawson DAL 4.6 2.1 0.7
19 Jaxson Hayes LAL 4.0 2.8 0.6
20 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.0 4.4 1.1
21 Markieff Morris DAL 3.9 1.6 0.8
22 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.9 2.0 0.9
23 Dwight Powell DAL 3.2 1.7 1.3
24 Richaun Holmes DAL 2.7 3.1 0.4
25 Dexter Dennis DAL 2.5 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.