NBA games

CLE @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
113–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE31293221113
BOS21383526120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home BOS
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 35 29 6 3
Darius Garland S 38 26 2 7
Max Strus S 37 17 9 3
Jarrett Allen S 37 14 5 5
Caris LeVert 23 11 2 3
Dean Wade S 20 8 3 3
Isaac Okoro 16 3 2 1
Georges Niang 23 3 2 1
Tristan Thompson 12 2 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 35 25 2 4
Jayson Tatum S 41 25 10 5
Kristaps Porzingis S 32 21 10 3
Derrick White S 37 17 4 4
Jrue Holiday S 34 11 4 2
Sam Hauser 20 9 3 1
Payton Pritchard 12 6 3 3
Luke Kornet 8 4 4 0
Al Horford 22 2 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Max Strus · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Max Strus makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jarrett Allen assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
15%
2 Darius Garland CLE
14%
3 Jayson Tatum BOS
12%
4 Donovan Mitchell CLE
11%
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
10%
6 Derrick White BOS
9%
7 Jarrett Allen CLE
8%
8 Jrue Holiday BOS
7%
9 Max Strus CLE
6%
10 Dean Wade CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
27%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.6 8.2 4.7
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 25.3 6.0 5.3
3 Darius Garland CLE 22.6 3.4 6.4
4 Jaylen Brown BOS 22.2 4.9 3.7
5 Derrick White BOS 19.2 4.1 5.8
6 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 18.2 6.2 2.2
7 Caris LeVert CLE 13.8 3.4 2.9
8 Max Strus CLE 13.5 4.6 3.9
9 Jarrett Allen CLE 13.4 9.1 2.4
10 Jrue Holiday BOS 13.4 6.5 4.2
11 Al Horford BOS 10.5 6.9 2.9
12 Georges Niang CLE 8.9 3.8 1.5
13 Sam Hauser BOS 8.5 3.5 1.2
14 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 8.1 2.4 2.8
15 Payton Pritchard BOS 6.5 2.5 1.5
16 Isaac Okoro CLE 5.9 2.6 1.3
17 Dean Wade CLE 5.7 4.6 1.0
18 Luke Kornet BOS 4.3 3.8 0.6
19 Neemias Queta BOS 3.9 3.8 0.3
20 Sam Merrill CLE 3.8 1.4 0.6
21 Tristan Thompson CLE 3.5 3.6 0.7
22 Lamar Stevens BOS 2.8 1.7 0.3
23 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 2.6 0.7 0.4
24 Dalano Banton BOS 2.3 1.9 0.4
25 Damian Jones CLE 1.9 1.3 0.4
26 Oshae Brissett BOS 1.3 1.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.