NBA games

POR @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
127–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR32333428127
LAC43233927132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home LAC
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 38 38 1 4
Shaedon Sharpe S 41 27 3 6
Scoot Henderson 30 19 4 6
Matisse Thybulle S 31 11 1 0
Duop Reath S 26 10 3 4
Jabari Walker 22 9 8 1
Toumani Camara S 37 7 4 4
Moses Brown 16 6 12 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 39 34 6 5
Paul George S 41 20 8 8
James Harden S 37 20 7 7
Ivica Zubac S 33 18 6 2
Norman Powell 25 16 3 1
Russell Westbrook 16 12 2 6
Terance Mann S 29 9 3 4
Daniel Theis 14 3 0 0
Kobe Brown 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kawhi Leonard · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Kawhi Leonard makes 14-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paul George LAC
13%
2 Ivica Zubac LAC
12%
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC
11%
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR
10%
5 Malcolm Brogdon POR
10%
6 James Harden LAC
8%
7 Anfernee Simons POR
8%
8 Terance Mann LAC
7%
9 Toumani Camara POR
7%
10 Matisse Thybulle POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
38%
Jumper
20%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 24.8 6.4 3.6
2 Anfernee Simons POR 23.1 2.7 4.1
3 Paul George LAC 22.9 5.7 4.6
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 19.5 5.8 3.9
5 James Harden LAC 17.1 4.0 7.6
6 Malcolm Brogdon POR 17.0 4.0 6.3
7 Ivica Zubac LAC 13.6 10.3 1.3
8 Norman Powell LAC 11.2 2.6 1.2
9 Scoot Henderson POR 10.4 2.9 4.2
10 Russell Westbrook LAC 9.9 6.5 4.1
11 Xavier Moon LAC 9.8 3.6 2.9
12 Toumani Camara POR 9.2 4.6 1.1
13 Skylar Mays POR 9.1 2.3 4.8
14 Terance Mann LAC 9.0 3.4 1.5
15 Jabari Walker POR 8.2 5.3 1.2
16 Daniel Theis LAC 6.9 4.9 0.9
17 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.8 2.8 1.4
18 Duop Reath POR 5.8 2.5 1.0
19 Kris Murray POR 3.4 1.5 0.6
20 Jordan Miller LAC 3.0 1.2 0.7
21 Kobe Brown LAC 2.8 1.8 0.7
22 Moses Brown POR 2.1 2.4 0.2
23 P.J. Tucker LAC 2.0 1.7 0.6
24 Rayan Rupert POR 1.3 0.7 0.3
25 Amir Coffey LAC 1.3 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.