NBA games

BKN @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
118–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN18303733118
SAC26284433131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home SAC
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mikal Bridges S 37 22 5 5
Cam Thomas S 31 20 0 2
Spencer Dinwiddie S 34 16 2 8
Cameron Johnson S 32 15 4 2
Dorian Finney-Smith 25 13 3 1
Nic Claxton S 26 8 10 0
Trendon Watford 11 8 5 2
Royce O'Neale 19 5 4 1
Day'Ron Sharpe 14 4 7 2
Harry Giles III 4 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 33 29 3 8
Keegan Murray S 34 24 3 3
Malik Monk 28 21 2 9
Trey Lyles 23 17 6 1
Domantas Sabonis S 34 15 16 9
Harrison Barnes S 27 14 2 1
Kevin Huerter S 17 6 1 1
Keon Ellis 15 3 1 2
Sasha Vezenkov 11 2 5 0
JaVale McGee 8 0 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Keegan Murray · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Keegan Murray makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
14%
2 Cam Thomas BKN
14%
3 De'Aaron Fox SAC
11%
4 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
10%
5 Cameron Johnson BKN
10%
6 Mikal Bridges BKN
9%
7 Nic Claxton BKN
9%
8 Harrison Barnes SAC
8%
9 Kevin Huerter SAC
8%
10 Keegan Murray SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
43%
Jumper
14%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 29.4 4.8 6.8
2 Mikal Bridges BKN 26.0 6.0 4.6
3 Cam Thomas BKN 22.8 4.0 3.1
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 20.0 11.2 6.6
5 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 18.3 4.5 7.5
6 Malik Monk SAC 16.4 3.2 4.2
7 Cameron Johnson BKN 16.2 5.7 3.2
8 Keegan Murray SAC 12.8 5.4 1.8
9 Nic Claxton BKN 12.7 9.7 1.6
10 Kevin Huerter SAC 11.9 3.9 2.8
11 Harrison Barnes SAC 11.6 3.9 1.8
12 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 10.0 5.1 1.4
13 Royce O'Neale BKN 9.2 4.2 3.2
14 Harry Giles III BKN 7.0 3.5 0.6
15 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.6 7.0 1.4
16 Trey Lyles SAC 6.5 3.7 1.3
17 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 6.0 2.5 0.8
18 Trendon Watford BKN 5.8 3.1 1.4
19 Davion Mitchell SAC 4.7 1.1 1.9
20 Chris Duarte SAC 4.6 2.0 0.9
21 Keon Ellis SAC 3.8 1.7 1.0
22 Colby Jones SAC 3.6 1.2 0.5
23 Armoni Brooks BKN 3.4 1.4 0.4
24 JaVale McGee SAC 3.2 3.3 0.7
25 Jalen Wilson BKN 2.9 1.2 0.6
26 Kessler Edwards SAC 2.4 1.5 0.6
27 Jalen Slawson SAC 1.4 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.