NBA games

UTAH @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
120–134
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH20322345120
OKC34324523134

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home OKC
17% 83%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keyonte George S 33 30 3 7
Collin Sexton 26 20 4 2
Simone Fontecchio S 23 19 2 1
Luka Samanic 17 14 7 1
Talen Horton-Tucker 15 11 1 2
Taylor Hendricks 26 8 2 2
Jordan Clarkson S 22 8 4 5
Kris Dunn 25 4 6 7
Ochai Agbaji S 22 2 1 2
Kelly Olynyk S 21 2 6 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 28 30 4 7
Ousmane Dieng 26 18 3 3
Chet Holmgren S 25 16 8 2
Jalen Williams S 22 15 3 3
Josh Giddey S 24 12 10 8
Cason Wallace S 25 10 3 2
Isaiah Joe 15 9 0 1
Jaylin Williams 10 7 1 1
Tre Mann 13 4 2 0
Davis Bertans 9 3 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Giddey · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Josh Giddey makes 22-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
14%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
14%
3 Jordan Clarkson UTAH
13%
4 Josh Giddey OKC
11%
5 Walker Kessler UTAH
11%
6 Simone Fontecchio UTAH
10%
7 Omer Yurtseven UTAH
9%
8 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
9%
9 Keyonte George UTAH
8%
10 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
26%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.4 4.3 7.2
2 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 22.0 3.8 5.3
3 Jalen Williams OKC 20.4 4.4 4.0
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 19.3 8.3 2.8
5 Keyonte George UTAH 14.3 3.8 5.2
6 Collin Sexton UTAH 13.4 3.2 3.7
7 Josh Giddey OKC 11.8 5.7 3.5
8 Isaiah Joe OKC 10.4 3.0 1.5
9 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 10.3 3.4 1.8
10 Walker Kessler UTAH 10.0 9.3 1.3
11 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 9.9 2.8 3.3
12 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 9.0 5.3 3.8
13 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 8.5 2.5 1.4
14 Cason Wallace OKC 7.0 2.4 1.2
15 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.7 2.6 1.0
16 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 5.4 5.7 0.8
17 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.4 2.8 1.4
18 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 4.6 2.3 0.7
19 Tre Mann OKC 4.5 2.0 1.6
20 Davis Bertans OKC 4.3 0.9 0.6
21 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.2 2.8 1.2
22 Vasilije Micic OKC 3.7 0.8 3.0
23 Kris Dunn UTAH 3.6 1.8 1.4
24 Lindy Waters III OKC 3.2 0.8 0.6
25 Luka Samanic UTAH 2.7 1.5 0.4
26 Ousmane Dieng OKC 2.5 1.3 0.7
27 Aleksej Pokusevski OKC 1.6 0.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.