NBA games

MIN @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
107121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN29233421107
NO29303131121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home NO
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 33 17 12 1
Mike Conley S 27 17 5 7
Naz Reid 24 17 6 2
Jaden McDaniels 27 12 3 0
Shake Milton 20 12 1 5
Rudy Gobert S 25 8 8 0
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 24 7 1 5
Kyle Anderson 19 6 4 3
Troy Brown Jr. S 27 5 6 2
Jordan McLaughlin 8 3 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 33 36 5 2
CJ McCollum S 29 23 4 4
Brandon Ingram S 29 20 3 5
Jonas Valanciunas S 35 14 13 4
Trey Murphy III 24 10 3 1
Herbert Jones S 32 7 10 5
Dyson Daniels 28 6 2 2
Naji Marshall 14 5 5 1
Jose Alvarado 15 0 2 3
Jordan Hawkins 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Ingram · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"Brandon Ingram makes 1-foot driving dunk (Herbert Jones assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jonas Valanciunas NO
13%
2 Zion Williamson NO
12%
3 Rudy Gobert MIN
12%
4 Brandon Ingram NO
11%
5 CJ McCollum NO
10%
6 Herbert Jones NO
10%
7 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
9%
8 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN
8%
9 Mike Conley MIN
8%
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
22%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
20%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 23.9 5.3 5.5
2 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 23.7 8.6 4.6
3 Brandon Ingram NO 23.7 5.0 5.8
4 CJ McCollum NO 20.1 4.3 5.7
5 Rudy Gobert MIN 15.4 11.1 1.3
6 Jonas Valanciunas NO 14.3 9.1 2.2
7 Herbert Jones NO 13.9 4.9 2.9
8 Trey Murphy III NO 13.6 3.3 1.4
9 Mike Conley MIN 12.1 2.9 6.7
10 Naz Reid MIN 11.8 4.8 1.3
11 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 10.3 2.8 2.6
12 Jordan Hawkins NO 10.1 3.0 1.6
13 Jaden McDaniels MIN 8.4 2.1 1.2
14 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 8.0 3.1 1.4
15 Kyle Anderson MIN 7.7 4.1 3.5
16 Naji Marshall NO 7.3 4.8 2.0
17 Jose Alvarado NO 6.4 2.1 2.0
18 Shake Milton MIN 6.2 1.8 1.6
19 Dyson Daniels NO 5.5 3.8 2.0
20 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 4.4 2.8 1.1
21 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 3.7 1.3 1.6
22 Kira Lewis Jr. NO 3.3 1.1 1.5
23 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 3.1 1.2 1.5
24 Cody Zeller NO 3.0 3.0 0.9
25 Daishen Nix MIN 2.6 0.6 1.0
26 Josh Minott MIN 1.5 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.