NBA games

CHI @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
129–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
CHI3233242911129
MIL3737172715133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home MIL
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 42 41 2 11
Coby White S 45 33 6 4
Patrick Williams S 41 15 7 2
Nikola Vucevic S 39 14 10 5
Andre Drummond 14 9 16 1
Torrey Craig 29 7 5 1
Jevon Carter 13 7 5 0
Dalen Terry 11 3 0 1
Julian Phillips 4 0 0 0
Ayo Dosunmu S 26 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 41 32 12 6
Malik Beasley S 40 19 4 2
Brook Lopez S 40 19 3 3
Bobby Portis 25 17 7 0
Damian Lillard S 41 14 4 9
Khris Middleton S 33 13 13 6
AJ Green 14 12 5 3
Cameron Payne 18 5 0 5
MarJon Beauchamp 14 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Damian Lillard · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Damian Lillard makes 27-foot three point jumper (Brook Lopez assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Vucevic CHI
14%
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
14%
3 Brook Lopez MIL
13%
4 DeMar DeRozan CHI
11%
5 Damian Lillard MIL
9%
6 Khris Middleton MIL
9%
7 Patrick Williams CHI
8%
8 Alex Caruso CHI
8%
9 Coby White CHI
7%
10 Malik Beasley MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
41%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.0 11.2 8.4
2 Damian Lillard MIL 24.6 4.6 8.3
3 DeMar DeRozan CHI 24.0 4.4 6.1
4 Coby White CHI 20.8 4.4 5.2
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 16.8 10.0 3.4
6 Brook Lopez MIL 16.5 5.8 2.1
7 Khris Middleton MIL 13.7 4.8 4.5
8 Patrick Williams CHI 12.6 5.2 1.6
9 Malik Beasley MIL 11.7 5.0 1.6
10 Alex Caruso CHI 10.5 3.2 2.3
11 Bobby Portis MIL 9.5 6.4 1.1
12 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 8.2 2.2 2.3
13 Torrey Craig CHI 6.7 4.1 1.2
14 Cameron Payne MIL 5.9 1.3 1.9
15 Andre Drummond CHI 5.4 6.7 0.8
16 Jevon Carter CHI 4.6 1.4 1.4
17 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 4.2 2.5 0.9
18 AJ Green MIL 2.7 0.8 0.5
19 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.6 0.9 0.7
20 Julian Phillips CHI 2.4 1.4 0.7
21 Terry Taylor CHI 2.2 1.7 0.5
22 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.1 1.1 0.5
23 Dalen Terry CHI 1.8 1.3 0.7
24 Robin Lopez MIL 1.8 1.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.