NBA games

DAL @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
120–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL29382924120
MEM24272834113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home MEM
77% 23%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 44 35 8 6
Jaden Hardy 34 19 0 4
Dante Exum S 35 16 4 6
Dereck Lively II S 35 16 16 2
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 18 11 4 2
Seth Curry S 20 6 3 2
Markieff Morris 21 6 3 2
Derrick Jones Jr. S 6 5 2 0
A.J. Lawson 14 4 1 1
Dwight Powell 12 2 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 42 41 4 2
Desmond Bane S 39 28 3 8
Vince Williams Jr. 26 10 9 1
David Roddy S 29 8 6 2
Derrick Rose S 17 7 3 4
John Konchar 25 6 6 2
Santi Aldama S 20 6 2 3
Ziaire Williams 16 5 3 1
Bismack Biyombo 12 2 2 1
Jaylen Nowell 8 0 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaren Jackson Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
14%
2 Dereck Lively II DAL
14%
3 Desmond Bane MEM
13%
4 Dante Exum DAL
11%
5 Derrick Rose MEM
10%
6 Bismack Biyombo MEM
10%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
9%
8 David Roddy MEM
9%
9 Luka Doncic DAL
8%
10 Santi Aldama MEM
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
38%
Jumper
21%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 30.3 7.7 8.8
2 Desmond Bane MEM 24.1 4.7 6.4
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 20.7 6.1 1.9
4 Santi Aldama MEM 14.6 7.0 2.6
5 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 11.1 4.6 1.2
6 Dereck Lively II DAL 10.1 9.0 1.5
7 David Roddy MEM 8.8 4.2 1.4
8 Derrick Rose MEM 8.7 2.0 3.4
9 Dante Exum DAL 8.1 3.3 2.6
10 Ziaire Williams MEM 7.4 2.6 1.3
11 Xavier Tillman MEM 6.9 3.9 1.6
12 Bismack Biyombo MEM 6.8 5.8 2.2
13 Jake LaRavia MEM 6.6 2.6 1.0
14 Seth Curry DAL 6.2 1.9 1.2
15 Jaylen Nowell MEM 6.0 1.6 1.3
16 Jacob Gilyard MEM 5.5 1.6 2.6
17 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 5.2 3.4 1.1
18 John Konchar MEM 4.6 3.6 1.4
19 A.J. Lawson DAL 4.3 1.9 0.6
20 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.0 1.5 1.2
21 Markieff Morris DAL 3.4 1.2 0.7
22 Dwight Powell DAL 3.1 2.1 1.3
23 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.1 1.6 0.7
24 Kenneth Lofton Jr. MEM 2.8 1.4 0.8
25 Richaun Holmes DAL 2.7 3.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.