NBA games

SA @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
82–93
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA2126152082
HOU1932182493

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home HOU
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 33 15 18 3
Devin Vassell S 31 14 6 2
Malaki Branham S 34 13 6 7
Keldon Johnson S 37 12 7 2
Cedi Osman 13 10 2 1
Jeremy Sochan S 35 7 6 2
Doug McDermott 15 6 0 1
Tre Jones 16 3 0 2
Zach Collins 14 2 4 0
Sandro Mamukelashvili 4 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tari Eason 27 18 14 1
Fred VanVleet S 39 16 6 5
Alperen Sengun S 30 15 9 4
Jeff Green 19 12 2 1
Jabari Smith Jr. S 36 9 12 5
Aaron Holiday 15 7 2 0
Jalen Green S 24 7 3 1
Jae'Sean Tate 9 5 2 0
Amen Thompson 10 2 5 1
Dillon Brooks S 30 2 5 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jeremy Sochan · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:49 Q1
"Jeremy Sochan makes 16-foot two point shot (Malaki Branham assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Green HOU
13%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
3 Alperen Sengun HOU
11%
4 Dillon Brooks HOU
11%
5 Keldon Johnson SA
10%
6 Fred VanVleet HOU
10%
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
8 Devin Vassell SA
9%
9 Jeremy Sochan SA
8%
10 Malaki Branham SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
21%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Alperen Sengun HOU 24.8 10.6 5.7
2 Jalen Green HOU 21.1 4.8 4.2
3 Fred VanVleet HOU 19.2 4.6 8.6
4 Victor Wembanyama SA 18.6 11.6 2.9
5 Keldon Johnson SA 18.5 6.2 4.0
6 Devin Vassell SA 17.7 3.5 3.4
7 Dillon Brooks HOU 15.1 3.4 2.1
8 Zach Collins SA 14.5 6.1 4.0
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.1 10.0 2.3
10 Jeremy Sochan SA 13.0 4.8 3.7
11 Amen Thompson HOU 9.5 3.8 2.7
12 Aaron Holiday HOU 9.1 2.6 2.6
13 Tre Jones SA 8.6 2.9 4.1
14 Cedi Osman SA 7.7 2.8 1.6
15 Tari Eason HOU 7.0 5.8 1.4
16 Malaki Branham SA 6.8 1.6 1.7
17 Julian Champagnie SA 6.0 2.3 1.3
18 Jeff Green HOU 5.9 2.3 1.0
19 Doug McDermott SA 5.7 1.6 1.9
20 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 5.1 3.2 1.0
21 Nate Williams HOU 3.9 1.2 0.4
22 Boban Marjanovic HOU 3.6 3.0 0.9
23 Devonte' Graham SA 3.0 0.9 1.3
24 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 2.4 1.0 0.7
25 Blake Wesley SA 2.2 0.8 1.3
26 Jock Landale HOU 2.1 1.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.