NBA games

TOR @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
130–136
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR35253733130
NY35313238136

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home NY
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
OG Anunoby S 37 29 5 2
Scottie Barnes S 38 20 6 5
Pascal Siakam S 37 20 4 4
Dennis Schroder S 33 20 2 10
Jakob Poeltl S 24 11 8 2
Malachi Flynn 17 10 4 4
Precious Achiuwa 21 9 5 3
Chris Boucher 10 5 3 0
Gary Trent Jr. 19 4 1 2
Gradey Dick 4 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 35 34 8 5
RJ Barrett S 32 27 3 2
Jalen Brunson S 38 21 2 9
Quentin Grimes 27 19 3 1
Josh Hart 31 16 7 8
Isaiah Hartenstein 27 11 8 2
Miles McBride 10 3 0 3
Donte DiVincenzo S 19 3 4 5
Jericho Sims S 21 2 7 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jakob Poeltl · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Jakob Poeltl makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam TOR
14%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
13%
3 RJ Barrett NY
12%
4 Julius Randle NY
11%
5 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
6 Dennis Schroder TOR
11%
7 OG Anunoby TOR
10%
8 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
9 Donte DiVincenzo NY
7%
10 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
26%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 26.5 4.2 6.6
2 Julius Randle NY 25.7 8.8 6.4
3 Pascal Siakam TOR 23.8 6.6 5.4
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.3 8.8 5.9
5 RJ Barrett NY 18.3 4.3 2.7
6 Dennis Schroder TOR 16.0 3.3 6.1
7 Immanuel Quickley NY 14.4 2.8 1.9
8 OG Anunoby TOR 13.8 4.5 3.1
9 Jakob Poeltl TOR 11.8 8.6 2.1
10 Josh Hart NY 10.1 5.3 2.6
11 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 9.8 1.9 1.7
12 Donte DiVincenzo NY 9.1 2.7 1.7
13 Precious Achiuwa TOR 8.1 5.7 1.8
14 Evan Fournier NY 6.9 1.8 0.7
15 Quentin Grimes NY 6.0 1.4 1.5
16 Chris Boucher TOR 5.2 2.4 0.6
17 Malachi Flynn TOR 4.9 2.0 1.6
18 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 4.7 6.5 1.4
19 Gradey Dick TOR 3.0 0.9 0.9
20 Dylan Windler NY 2.5 0.9 0.6
21 Thaddeus Young TOR 2.3 1.5 0.6
22 Jalen McDaniels TOR 2.3 1.0 0.4
23 Miles McBride NY 2.0 0.6 0.4
24 DaQuan Jeffries NY 2.0 0.6 0.5
25 Garrett Temple TOR 1.7 0.5 0.3
26 Charlie Brown Jr. NY 1.6 0.6 0.4
27 Jericho Sims NY 1.5 0.9 0.3
28 Ryan Arcidiacono NY 1.5 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.