NBA games

DEN @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
129–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN28373826129
ATL36262436122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home ATL
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 29 29 9 4
Nikola Jokic S 36 25 8 9
Julian Strawther 28 22 1 2
Aaron Gordon S 29 18 12 1
Reggie Jackson 19 12 1 6
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 30 8 3 2
Christian Braun 11 6 2 1
Michael Porter Jr. S 26 3 7 3
Peyton Watson 20 3 2 0
Zeke Nnaji 12 3 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bogdan Bogdanovic 36 40 3 3
Dejounte Murray S 38 21 6 3
Trae Young S 26 19 1 9
Saddiq Bey S 40 16 4 2
Clint Capela S 28 14 8 2
Onyeka Okongwu 28 7 6 3
Garrison Mathews S 17 3 0 1
Wesley Matthews 18 2 5 1
AJ Griffin 9 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Jokic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Nikola Jokic makes 2-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
12%
2 Dejounte Murray ATL
12%
3 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
4 Nikola Jokic DEN
11%
5 Aaron Gordon DEN
10%
6 Clint Capela ATL
10%
7 Saddiq Bey ATL
9%
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
8%
9 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
10 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
60%
Jumper
6%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 28.9 12.2 10.4
2 Trae Young ATL 28.6 3.4 10.4
3 Jamal Murray DEN 20.1 3.6 7.0
4 Dejounte Murray ATL 19.4 4.1 5.5
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 18.5 8.0 2.4
6 Reggie Jackson DEN 18.1 3.7 6.5
7 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 16.8 4.2 2.0
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 14.3 2.8 3.5
9 Saddiq Bey ATL 14.2 6.3 1.6
10 Aaron Gordon DEN 13.9 7.2 3.7
11 Clint Capela ATL 11.9 10.5 1.4
12 Christian Braun DEN 8.3 3.8 1.9
13 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 8.3 6.4 1.4
14 Justin Holiday DEN 6.1 2.2 1.5
15 DeAndre Jordan DEN 5.8 4.8 1.5
16 Peyton Watson DEN 5.4 3.4 1.2
17 Julian Strawther DEN 5.3 1.8 1.4
18 Seth Lundy ATL 4.3 1.8 0.6
19 Trent Forrest ATL 3.9 1.3 1.9
20 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.2 1.4 0.5
21 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.1 2.0 0.4
22 Wesley Matthews ATL 2.7 1.1 0.8
23 Bruno Fernando ATL 2.6 2.1 0.7
24 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.5 0.9 0.7
25 Garrison Mathews ATL 2.4 1.0 0.6
26 Patty Mills ATL 2.4 1.0 0.9
27 AJ Griffin ATL 2.2 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.