NBA games

CLE @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
94–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE2925152594
ORL22293023104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home ORL
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 39 36 6 5
Donovan Mitchell S 37 22 3 3
Tristan Thompson 29 10 13 2
Dean Wade S 29 9 6 0
Sam Merrill 17 6 3 1
Max Strus S 26 6 2 3
Jarrett Allen S 15 4 7 1
Isaac Okoro 26 1 4 0
Georges Niang 22 0 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 36 20 10 4
Franz Wagner S 33 19 8 4
Goga Bitadze S 29 15 7 2
Joe Ingles 20 12 4 3
Jalen Suggs S 28 12 4 3
Moritz Wagner 18 8 2 0
Cole Anthony 18 8 2 4
Jonathan Isaac 13 7 4 0
Gary Harris 26 3 1 2
Anthony Black S 19 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Franz Wagner · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Franz Wagner makes 14-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
12%
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE
11%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
4 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
5 Darius Garland CLE
10%
6 Goga Bitadze ORL
9%
7 Max Strus CLE
8%
8 Jalen Suggs ORL
7%
9 Gary Harris ORL
7%
10 Anthony Black ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
32%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
23%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 26.0 6.3 5.5
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 24.6 6.3 4.3
3 Franz Wagner ORL 23.6 5.7 4.5
4 Darius Garland CLE 22.6 3.4 6.5
5 Cole Anthony ORL 19.2 5.0 4.2
6 Jarrett Allen CLE 14.9 8.7 2.8
7 Max Strus CLE 14.2 4.7 4.1
8 Moritz Wagner ORL 12.9 4.4 1.5
9 Jalen Suggs ORL 12.3 3.1 2.7
10 Georges Niang CLE 10.1 3.7 1.7
11 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 8.5 2.5 2.9
12 Gary Harris ORL 7.9 1.8 2.0
13 Goga Bitadze ORL 7.7 6.8 2.2
14 Isaac Okoro CLE 6.4 2.7 1.3
15 Joe Ingles ORL 6.0 2.6 3.5
16 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.4 4.9 0.4
17 Dean Wade CLE 5.0 4.3 0.9
18 Anthony Black ORL 5.0 2.6 1.4
19 Jett Howard ORL 3.9 1.1 0.7
20 Sam Merrill CLE 3.7 1.2 0.7
21 Caleb Houstan ORL 3.1 1.4 0.6
22 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.9 2.4 0.6
23 Isaiah Mobley CLE 2.6 1.5 0.8
24 Admiral Schofield ORL 2.2 1.6 0.6
25 Damian Jones CLE 2.1 1.4 0.5
26 Chuma Okeke ORL 2.1 1.0 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.