NBA games

IND @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
131–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND33333233131
DET36253230123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home DET
79% 21%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bennedict Mathurin 37 30 7 8
Myles Turner S 31 23 8 1
Buddy Hield S 31 16 3 2
Tyrese Haliburton S 33 14 5 16
Aaron Nesmith 27 13 1 1
Bruce Brown S 37 11 9 0
Isaiah Jackson 17 10 5 0
T.J. McConnell 15 8 2 5
Obi Toppin S 12 6 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 38 23 6 7
Ausar Thompson S 33 20 6 2
Jaden Ivey 34 18 3 2
Bojan Bogdanovic S 34 17 1 2
Alec Burks 13 14 0 0
Isaiah Stewart S 34 13 7 2
Isaiah Livers 17 8 2 3
Killian Hayes S 23 6 1 7
James Wiseman 13 4 4 1
Kevin Knox II 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ausar Thompson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Ausar Thompson makes 3-foot layup (Cade Cunningham assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
17%
2 Myles Turner IND
12%
3 Obi Toppin IND
11%
4 Marvin Bagley III DET
10%
5 Isaiah Stewart DET
9%
6 Bojan Bogdanovic DET
9%
7 Killian Hayes DET
9%
8 Buddy Hield IND
8%
9 Bruce Brown IND
8%
10 Tyrese Haliburton IND
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
34%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Haliburton IND 27.2 4.1 11.8
2 Cade Cunningham DET 25.7 4.5 7.5
3 Bojan Bogdanovic DET 20.4 3.6 3.7
4 Myles Turner IND 16.3 8.7 1.7
5 Obi Toppin IND 15.4 3.6 2.3
6 Buddy Hield IND 14.7 3.8 2.9
7 Bruce Brown IND 14.0 4.0 3.0
8 Bennedict Mathurin IND 13.8 3.8 1.8
9 Jaden Ivey DET 13.1 3.4 2.9
10 Isaiah Stewart DET 10.6 6.5 1.5
11 Aaron Nesmith IND 10.5 3.1 1.5
12 Killian Hayes DET 9.9 3.5 3.5
13 Ausar Thompson DET 9.1 6.2 1.4
14 Marvin Bagley III DET 8.8 5.2 1.2
15 T.J. McConnell IND 7.8 2.8 4.7
16 Alec Burks DET 7.6 2.0 1.3
17 Kevin Knox II DET 7.3 2.6 1.0
18 Isaiah Livers DET 6.4 2.1 1.4
19 Marcus Sasser DET 5.8 1.4 2.3
20 Jarace Walker IND 5.7 3.1 1.4
21 Isaiah Jackson IND 5.2 4.8 0.8
22 James Wiseman DET 4.8 3.4 0.7
23 Joe Harris DET 4.5 1.4 0.9
24 Jordan Nwora IND 4.3 1.7 0.8
25 Ben Sheppard IND 3.7 1.4 0.8
26 Oscar Tshiebwe IND 2.9 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.