NBA games

MIA @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
116–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA29303027116
CHA24262737114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home CHA
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Duncan Robinson S 33 24 7 4
Jimmy Butler III S 36 23 4 8
Caleb Martin S 39 20 9 5
Kevin Love 21 19 6 1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 24 18 0 1
Orlando Robinson S 22 7 6 2
Kyle Lowry S 35 3 5 5
Josh Richardson 25 2 4 4
Thomas Bryant 4 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Terry Rozier S 39 34 2 13
Miles Bridges S 34 18 4 1
Gordon Hayward S 32 17 6 7
Brandon Miller S 30 16 4 2
P.J. Washington 32 15 8 3
Nick Richards S 26 6 6 1
Ish Smith 15 5 0 3
Bryce McGowens 23 3 1 1
JT Thor 9 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nick Richards · Layup (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Nick Richards makes layup (Terry Rozier assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Terry Rozier CHA
16%
2 Gordon Hayward CHA
13%
3 Brandon Miller CHA
12%
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA
11%
5 Miles Bridges CHA
11%
6 Caleb Martin MIA
10%
7 Kyle Lowry MIA
10%
8 Orlando Robinson MIA
8%
9 Duncan Robinson MIA
8%
10 Josh Richardson MIA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
39%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA 25.0 4.9 5.1
2 Terry Rozier CHA 23.7 3.8 7.3
3 Miles Bridges CHA 20.8 6.6 3.2
4 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 17.3 4.3 3.2
5 Duncan Robinson MIA 16.6 3.3 3.7
6 Brandon Miller CHA 16.3 4.2 2.8
7 Gordon Hayward CHA 14.6 4.7 4.1
8 Josh Richardson MIA 14.4 3.4 3.4
9 Caleb Martin MIA 13.7 4.7 2.3
10 Kyle Lowry MIA 12.8 4.1 3.9
11 P.J. Washington CHA 12.7 4.8 2.8
12 Nick Richards CHA 8.7 6.6 0.9
13 Kevin Love MIA 8.6 6.4 2.9
14 Orlando Robinson MIA 7.9 5.4 2.1
15 Cole Swider MIA 6.2 1.1 0.9
16 R.J. Hampton MIA 6.1 2.1 2.5
17 Jamal Cain MIA 6.0 3.8 0.6
18 Ish Smith CHA 4.9 1.6 2.7
19 Bryce McGowens CHA 4.7 1.6 1.0
20 Thomas Bryant MIA 4.1 2.9 0.4
21 JT Thor CHA 3.4 1.8 0.5
22 Theo Maledon CHA 3.3 1.1 1.8
23 Leaky Black CHA 1.4 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.