NBA games

HOU @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
97–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU3014282597
LAL25352621107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home LAL
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Fred VanVleet S 40 22 5 7
Alperen Sengun S 34 21 13 5
Aaron Holiday 14 11 1 3
Jalen Green S 32 10 7 2
Dillon Brooks S 33 10 2 1
Jabari Smith Jr. S 30 10 9 3
Tari Eason 20 6 7 2
Cam Whitmore 3 5 3 1
Jae'Sean Tate 14 2 2 0
Jeff Green 11 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 37 27 14 3
Austin Reaves 22 18 4 1
LeBron James S 35 16 4 7
Max Christie 29 12 7 2
Cam Reddish S 24 11 5 1
Taurean Prince S 29 11 6 1
D'Angelo Russell S 26 9 2 7
Jaxson Hayes 6 2 0 0
Christian Wood 11 1 2 1
Jalen Hood-Schifino 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Taurean Prince · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Taurean Prince makes 23-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
13%
2 Anthony Davis LAL
11%
3 Jalen Green HOU
10%
4 LeBron James LAL
9%
5 D'Angelo Russell LAL
9%
6 Dillon Brooks HOU
9%
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
8 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
9 Taurean Prince LAL
8%
10 Aaron Holiday HOU
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
36%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 25.2 7.0 7.1
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 24.0 9.7 5.3
3 Anthony Davis LAL 22.3 12.7 3.3
4 Jalen Green HOU 21.4 4.9 4.4
5 D'Angelo Russell LAL 18.7 4.0 6.2
6 Fred VanVleet HOU 16.8 4.4 8.6
7 Austin Reaves LAL 14.5 5.2 5.5
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.4 7.7 1.6
9 Dillon Brooks HOU 12.0 3.0 1.8
10 Rui Hachimura LAL 11.5 3.7 1.3
11 Cam Reddish LAL 9.2 2.6 1.5
12 Taurean Prince LAL 8.6 2.7 1.8
13 Christian Wood LAL 7.3 5.6 1.1
14 Cam Whitmore HOU 6.9 2.1 0.8
15 Aaron Holiday HOU 6.7 2.0 2.2
16 Tari Eason HOU 6.5 5.4 1.0
17 Max Christie LAL 5.8 2.4 1.3
18 Jeff Green HOU 5.7 2.3 0.8
19 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 5.6 3.3 1.1
20 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 5.1 2.3 2.5
21 Jaxson Hayes LAL 4.1 1.8 0.6
22 Nate Hinton HOU 3.0 1.3 0.5
23 Jermaine Samuels Jr. HOU 2.8 1.7 0.8
24 Jock Landale HOU 2.4 1.7 0.6
25 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 2.4 1.4 0.7
26 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.3 2.1 0.6
27 Maxwell Lewis LAL 2.3 0.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.