NBA games

DEN @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
117–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN30202839117
SAC25392435123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home SAC
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 38 36 13 14
Reggie Jackson S 33 20 1 8
Aaron Gordon S 33 17 7 3
Michael Porter Jr. S 33 13 8 2
Christian Braun 17 11 3 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 38 9 5 3
DeAndre Jordan 10 4 4 0
Peyton Watson 14 4 1 1
Julian Strawther 12 3 1 2
Justin Holiday 12 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 38 26 4 16
Malik Monk 28 26 3 4
Domantas Sabonis S 36 17 15 7
Kevin Huerter S 29 16 6 2
Harrison Barnes S 33 11 3 0
JaVale McGee 12 8 4 0
Keegan Murray S 23 8 5 1
Trey Lyles 18 7 4 1
Sasha Vezenkov 14 4 3 0
Keon Ellis 8 0 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Domantas Sabonis · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"Domantas Sabonis makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
16%
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC
12%
3 De'Aaron Fox SAC
9%
4 Aaron Gordon DEN
9%
5 Reggie Jackson DEN
9%
6 Harrison Barnes SAC
8%
7 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
7%
8 Kevin Huerter SAC
7%
9 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
6%
10 Keegan Murray SAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
74%
Jumper
10%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 32.0 12.2 11.5
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC 30.1 4.5 6.5
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 22.2 10.9 7.4
4 Reggie Jackson DEN 18.0 3.7 5.5
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 17.5 7.5 2.2
6 Kevin Huerter SAC 16.2 4.3 3.3
7 Aaron Gordon DEN 14.5 8.5 3.8
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 13.8 2.6 3.8
9 Malik Monk SAC 13.7 3.3 4.2
10 Harrison Barnes SAC 11.8 3.5 1.9
11 Keegan Murray SAC 11.4 4.8 1.8
12 Christian Braun DEN 10.5 4.0 1.8
13 Trey Lyles SAC 7.2 3.9 1.0
14 Justin Holiday DEN 6.0 2.0 1.3
15 DeAndre Jordan DEN 5.7 4.0 2.1
16 Julian Strawther DEN 5.5 1.9 1.2
17 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 5.4 2.1 0.7
18 Colby Jones SAC 4.8 1.5 0.7
19 Chris Duarte SAC 4.7 2.1 0.9
20 Peyton Watson DEN 4.4 2.3 0.8
21 JaVale McGee SAC 4.3 3.6 0.8
22 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.7 2.3 0.5
23 Braxton Key DEN 3.3 2.2 1.1
24 Keon Ellis SAC 3.1 1.5 0.7
25 Collin Gillespie DEN 2.8 0.9 0.8
26 Kessler Edwards SAC 2.7 1.5 0.7
27 Jalen Slawson SAC 2.2 1.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.