NBA games

POR @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
113–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
POR242030327113
UTAH2135282212118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home UTAH
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malcolm Brogdon S 38 25 3 6
Shaedon Sharpe S 44 25 5 4
Scoot Henderson 21 17 5 3
Deandre Ayton S 35 10 11 0
Jerami Grant S 26 9 3 0
Duop Reath 14 9 1 1
Toumani Camara S 30 8 3 0
Matisse Thybulle 33 6 3 2
Jabari Walker 24 4 6 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton 30 25 4 5
Keyonte George S 36 21 6 6
John Collins S 35 17 9 3
Talen Horton-Tucker 21 14 2 4
Walker Kessler 25 12 8 0
Omer Yurtseven S 27 9 15 4
Simone Fontecchio S 35 7 5 5
Ochai Agbaji S 26 6 2 0
Taylor Hendricks 18 5 2 0
Luka Samanic 12 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Toumani Camara · Layup (2 pts) · 10:52 Q1
"Toumani Camara makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
14%
2 Malcolm Brogdon POR
13%
3 John Collins UTAH
12%
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR
11%
5 Jerami Grant POR
10%
6 Omer Yurtseven UTAH
8%
7 Toumani Camara POR
8%
8 Keyonte George UTAH
8%
9 Ochai Agbaji UTAH
8%
10 Simone Fontecchio UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
25%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
31%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jerami Grant POR 22.6 3.8 3.4
2 Malcolm Brogdon POR 19.7 4.1 7.6
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 18.2 5.9 4.3
4 Deandre Ayton POR 16.4 9.3 2.3
5 John Collins UTAH 14.5 8.0 1.3
6 Keyonte George UTAH 13.7 3.7 5.6
7 Collin Sexton UTAH 11.9 3.2 3.8
8 Scoot Henderson POR 10.7 2.8 5.0
9 Walker Kessler UTAH 9.9 8.3 1.2
10 Skylar Mays POR 9.7 2.4 5.3
11 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 8.9 2.9 3.3
12 Jabari Walker POR 8.8 5.6 1.2
13 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 8.6 3.8 1.5
14 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 8.4 2.7 1.5
15 Toumani Camara POR 7.9 3.7 1.4
16 Matisse Thybulle POR 7.5 2.5 1.7
17 Duop Reath POR 6.4 2.1 1.3
18 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 5.2 3.9 0.8
19 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 3.8 2.1 0.6
20 Luka Samanic UTAH 3.4 1.8 0.7
21 Moses Brown POR 2.5 2.4 0.3
22 Kris Murray POR 2.1 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.