NBA games

MEM @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
109–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM27242137109
PHX27233432116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home PHX
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 35 37 9 2
Desmond Bane S 30 27 3 5
Vince Williams Jr. 30 12 5 2
David Roddy S 30 8 6 1
Jaylen Nowell S 34 8 1 2
Santi Aldama 31 7 7 1
John Konchar 20 6 4 0
Bismack Biyombo S 17 2 5 1
Xavier Tillman 12 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 37 34 10 7
Kevin Durant S 33 27 2 5
Jusuf Nurkic S 26 14 9 3
Grayson Allen S 33 9 2 4
Keita Bates-Diop 18 8 3 0
Jordan Goodwin 19 7 4 1
Drew Eubanks 18 6 3 1
Yuta Watanabe 15 4 2 0
Nassir Little 15 4 2 2
Josh Okogie S 26 3 7 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaren Jackson Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Jaren Jackson Jr. makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
16%
2 Devin Booker PHX
13%
3 Desmond Bane MEM
12%
4 Bismack Biyombo MEM
11%
5 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
10%
6 Keita Bates-Diop PHX
10%
7 Kevin Durant PHX
9%
8 Grayson Allen PHX
9%
9 David Roddy MEM
9%
10 Santi Aldama MEM
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
41%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 29.6 6.0 7.1
2 Devin Booker PHX 27.5 5.5 8.9
3 Desmond Bane MEM 23.6 4.3 6.3
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 16.2 5.3 1.7
5 Santi Aldama MEM 15.8 5.9 2.1
6 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 14.6 9.1 3.0
7 Grayson Allen PHX 12.9 4.8 2.9
8 Xavier Tillman MEM 9.3 6.1 1.9
9 David Roddy MEM 9.1 4.1 1.4
10 Bismack Biyombo MEM 8.5 6.9 1.9
11 Josh Okogie PHX 6.9 3.4 1.3
12 Jordan Goodwin PHX 6.3 3.4 2.0
13 Drew Eubanks PHX 6.1 3.8 1.1
14 Nassir Little PHX 6.0 2.7 0.9
15 Jacob Gilyard MEM 5.9 1.7 2.7
16 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 5.8 3.5 1.0
17 Saben Lee PHX 5.8 1.5 2.0
18 Yuta Watanabe PHX 5.0 2.2 0.9
19 Jaylen Nowell MEM 4.7 1.9 0.8
20 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 4.5 3.0 1.0
21 John Konchar MEM 3.9 2.8 1.3
22 Chimezie Metu PHX 3.5 1.9 0.7
23 Kenneth Lofton Jr. MEM 3.0 1.6 0.8
24 Shaquille Harrison MEM 2.4 2.0 0.5
25 Bol Bol PHX 2.2 1.0 0.4
26 Udoka Azubuike PHX 1.7 2.2 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.