NBA games

OKC @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
126–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC33393519126
DAL27292836120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home DAL
76% 24%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Williams S 30 23 5 5
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 39 17 3 9
Davis Bertans 11 15 1 1
Cason Wallace 20 15 6 0
Jaylin Williams 15 14 3 0
Chet Holmgren S 30 11 11 3
Luguentz Dort S 33 10 5 3
Josh Giddey S 17 10 3 1
Isaiah Joe 25 6 7 2
Kenrich Williams 11 5 6 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 46 36 15 18
Derrick Jones Jr. S 33 24 4 1
Dereck Lively II S 39 20 16 0
A.J. Lawson 19 12 0 2
Seth Curry S 36 12 5 3
Jaden Hardy 15 6 2 0
Grant Williams S 27 5 1 1
Dwight Powell 4 2 0 0
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 14 2 1 1
Richaun Holmes 5 1 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dereck Lively II · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:51 Q1
"Dereck Lively II makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic DAL
16%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
14%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
13%
4 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
5 Dereck Lively II DAL
11%
6 Josh Giddey OKC
9%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
9%
8 Grant Williams DAL
8%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
10 Isaiah Joe OKC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
34%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
42%
Jumper
8%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.9 5.2 7.3
2 Luka Doncic DAL 29.6 6.9 7.5
3 Chet Holmgren OKC 20.0 8.0 3.1
4 Jalen Williams OKC 19.9 4.2 4.1
5 Josh Giddey OKC 14.3 6.4 4.4
6 Isaiah Joe OKC 10.1 2.9 1.5
7 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 9.3 4.4 1.4
8 Grant Williams DAL 8.1 3.8 2.1
9 Dereck Lively II DAL 8.1 7.1 1.4
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 7.7 3.8 1.4
11 Cason Wallace OKC 6.5 2.4 1.5
12 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.1 2.8 2.1
13 Tre Mann OKC 5.4 2.4 1.6
14 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.3 2.5 1.1
15 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.0 1.7 1.2
16 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.5 3.6 1.6
17 Seth Curry DAL 4.4 1.8 0.9
18 Davis Bertans OKC 3.9 0.9 0.5
19 A.J. Lawson DAL 3.9 2.5 0.5
20 Vasilije Micic OKC 3.8 0.8 3.0
21 Richaun Holmes DAL 3.7 4.0 0.6
22 Dexter Dennis DAL 3.7 1.7 0.5
23 Markieff Morris DAL 3.6 1.5 0.8
24 Olivier Sarr OKC 3.2 2.9 0.5
25 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.2 1.7 0.5
26 Dwight Powell DAL 3.1 2.9 1.0
27 Aleksej Pokusevski OKC 2.7 1.2 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.