NBA games

ATL @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
121–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL37263523121
MIL42253233132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home MIL
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 37 32 2 12
Dejounte Murray S 34 30 2 3
Saddiq Bey S 36 17 9 1
Bogdan Bogdanovic 25 14 3 0
De'Andre Hunter S 31 12 1 0
Clint Capela S 30 10 17 4
Onyeka Okongwu 27 5 4 3
Wesley Matthews 12 1 1 0
Garrison Mathews 7 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 36 32 11 10
Damian Lillard S 38 25 6 9
Cameron Payne 20 18 3 2
Malik Beasley S 39 16 4 3
Bobby Portis 23 15 11 0
Khris Middleton S 25 12 5 3
Brook Lopez S 33 11 2 4
MarJon Beauchamp 17 3 1 2
AJ Green 9 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dejounte Murray · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:05 Q1
"Dejounte Murray makes 18-foot pullup jump shot (Trae Young assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Damian Lillard MIL
15%
2 Brook Lopez MIL
12%
3 Dejounte Murray ATL
11%
4 De'Andre Hunter ATL
10%
5 Clint Capela ATL
10%
6 Trae Young ATL
10%
7 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
9%
8 Khris Middleton MIL
8%
9 Saddiq Bey ATL
8%
10 Malik Beasley MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
40%
Jumper
18%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 33.5 11.8 7.1
2 Trae Young ATL 29.4 3.6 11.5
3 Damian Lillard MIL 26.7 4.5 8.9
4 Dejounte Murray ATL 19.6 4.1 5.4
5 Brook Lopez MIL 17.5 6.5 2.0
6 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 17.0 3.9 2.4
7 De'Andre Hunter ATL 14.7 4.5 1.9
8 Khris Middleton MIL 14.2 4.2 4.5
9 Malik Beasley MIL 14.0 4.8 1.7
10 Saddiq Bey ATL 13.3 5.7 1.8
11 Bobby Portis MIL 11.5 7.0 1.4
12 Clint Capela ATL 11.2 9.2 1.1
13 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 9.0 6.7 1.4
14 Cameron Payne MIL 6.1 1.7 2.7
15 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 5.6 2.9 1.3
16 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.3 1.6 0.7
17 Wesley Matthews ATL 3.5 1.3 0.9
18 TyTy Washington Jr. MIL 3.5 1.1 1.6
19 Trent Forrest ATL 3.4 1.1 1.9
20 Bruno Fernando ATL 3.2 2.4 0.9
21 AJ Griffin ATL 2.8 1.0 0.4
22 AJ Green MIL 2.8 1.0 0.8
23 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.6 1.5 0.5
24 Lindell Wigginton MIL 2.5 1.6 1.7
25 Robin Lopez MIL 2.1 1.6 0.6
26 Patty Mills ATL 1.9 0.7 0.6
27 Marques Bolden MIL 1.8 2.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.