NBA games

NO @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
118–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO29322136118
CHI32213635124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home CHI
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 30 27 5 3
Brandon Ingram S 36 23 6 6
Herbert Jones S 36 17 7 4
Jonas Valanciunas S 36 15 10 1
Jordan Hawkins 25 10 1 0
Jose Alvarado 18 8 1 2
Dyson Daniels S 22 7 2 2
Naji Marshall 27 7 3 2
Cody Zeller 12 4 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 40 31 9 6
DeMar DeRozan S 40 24 5 10
Torrey Craig 19 15 6 2
Ayo Dosunmu 33 15 0 3
Patrick Williams S 29 14 4 2
Alex Caruso S 13 8 2 2
Andre Drummond 15 7 8 1
Nikola Vucevic S 33 6 7 4
Jevon Carter 15 2 0 2
Julian Phillips 4 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zion Williamson · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Zion Williamson makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI
14%
2 Zion Williamson NO
14%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
13%
4 Jonas Valanciunas NO
12%
5 Brandon Ingram NO
11%
6 Herbert Jones NO
7%
7 Coby White CHI
7%
8 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
7%
9 Patrick Williams CHI
7%
10 Alex Caruso CHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
30%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram NO 24.6 5.0 6.1
2 Zion Williamson NO 24.6 5.6 5.7
3 DeMar DeRozan CHI 22.0 3.9 5.1
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 16.9 9.3 4.0
5 Jonas Valanciunas NO 16.7 9.3 3.0
6 Coby White CHI 16.2 3.3 3.9
7 Herbert Jones NO 13.8 4.5 3.7
8 Jordan Hawkins NO 12.8 3.8 2.3
9 Alex Caruso CHI 12.0 3.2 2.6
10 Patrick Williams CHI 10.6 4.6 1.4
11 Naji Marshall NO 9.7 4.8 2.2
12 Dyson Daniels NO 8.2 4.4 3.8
13 Torrey Craig CHI 6.2 4.0 1.1
14 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 6.2 2.2 1.8
15 Jose Alvarado NO 6.0 1.9 1.7
16 Jevon Carter CHI 4.7 1.4 1.2
17 Andre Drummond CHI 4.6 6.3 0.8
18 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 4.2 2.5 1.0
19 Cody Zeller NO 3.5 3.6 1.0
20 Dereon Seabron NO 2.9 1.2 0.7
21 Dalen Terry CHI 2.8 2.1 1.0
22 Kira Lewis Jr. NO 2.7 0.8 1.2
23 Julian Phillips CHI 2.3 1.1 0.7
24 Terry Taylor CHI 2.1 1.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.