NBA games

IND @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
144–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND25404138144
MIA31343331129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home MIA
69% 31%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bruce Brown S 37 30 4 2
Aaron Nesmith 29 22 4 1
Obi Toppin S 35 20 2 2
T.J. McConnell 25 20 2 11
Myles Turner S 30 17 10 1
Bennedict Mathurin 25 16 5 4
Isaiah Jackson 8 8 3 1
Buddy Hield S 24 7 1 2
Andrew Nembhard S 23 4 1 11
Ben Sheppard 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 37 33 5 5
Caleb Martin 35 18 2 3
Duncan Robinson S 30 17 2 3
Josh Richardson 24 16 2 3
Orlando Robinson S 29 16 5 3
Kevin Love 19 14 1 5
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 29 11 3 3
Kyle Lowry S 29 4 8 2
Jamal Cain 5 0 0 0
Haywood Highsmith S 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Duncan Robinson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Duncan Robinson makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Orlando Robinson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Obi Toppin IND
17%
2 Myles Turner IND
16%
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA
15%
4 Bruce Brown IND
12%
5 Duncan Robinson MIA
11%
6 Buddy Hield IND
10%
7 Kyle Lowry MIA
9%
8 Haywood Highsmith MIA
9%
9 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
0%
10 Andrew Nembhard IND
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
25%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA 25.3 4.9 4.8
2 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 17.5 5.0 3.2
3 Duncan Robinson MIA 16.5 3.4 3.2
4 Myles Turner IND 16.4 6.8 1.6
5 Obi Toppin IND 14.4 3.3 2.1
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 13.9 4.3 1.7
7 Josh Richardson MIA 13.0 3.4 3.6
8 Buddy Hield IND 12.9 3.2 2.5
9 Bruce Brown IND 12.6 4.5 3.1
10 Kyle Lowry MIA 12.2 3.4 3.6
11 Aaron Nesmith IND 9.0 2.8 1.3
12 Caleb Martin MIA 8.7 3.3 1.6
13 Jamal Cain MIA 7.8 4.5 0.7
14 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.4 3.5 1.9
15 Andrew Nembhard IND 7.2 2.1 3.7
16 Kevin Love MIA 7.2 5.9 2.1
17 Orlando Robinson MIA 6.4 4.0 1.5
18 T.J. McConnell IND 5.6 2.4 3.3
19 Nikola Jovic MIA 5.4 3.9 1.7
20 Thomas Bryant MIA 5.3 3.7 0.7
21 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.4 4.2 0.8
22 Jarace Walker IND 4.2 2.6 1.2
23 Jordan Nwora IND 3.8 1.6 0.7
24 Ben Sheppard IND 3.4 1.2 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.