NBA games

CLE @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
110–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE25293125110
DET30183419101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home DET
83% 17%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Max Strus S 38 22 5 5
Darius Garland S 34 22 2 5
Donovan Mitchell S 33 20 3 4
Jarrett Allen S 34 19 11 3
Georges Niang 22 12 3 2
Isaac Okoro 33 9 6 4
Evan Mobley S 36 6 11 1
Craig Porter Jr. 4 0 0 0
Tristan Thompson 3 0 2 0
Sam Merrill 3 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 37 23 8 11
Bojan Bogdanovic 27 22 2 2
Jalen Duren S 30 17 11 1
Killian Hayes S 33 13 6 3
Isaiah Stewart S 30 11 7 5
Jaden Ivey S 29 7 2 1
Marcus Sasser 16 4 2 1
Ausar Thompson 16 4 8 0
Isaiah Livers 14 0 0 0
Marvin Bagley III 7 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Evan Mobley · Layup (2 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Evan Mobley makes layup (Max Strus assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
14%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
13%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
12%
4 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
5 Darius Garland CLE
10%
6 Jalen Duren DET
10%
7 Max Strus CLE
8%
8 Isaiah Stewart DET
7%
9 Killian Hayes DET
7%
10 Isaiah Livers DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
28%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 26.4 5.5 6.3
2 Darius Garland CLE 23.0 3.4 6.6
3 Cade Cunningham DET 22.9 4.2 6.9
4 Evan Mobley CLE 19.9 11.2 3.6
5 Jarrett Allen CLE 15.8 8.7 2.6
6 Max Strus CLE 15.7 4.8 5.1
7 Caris LeVert CLE 15.3 3.8 3.4
8 Jalen Duren DET 12.7 10.2 2.6
9 Jaden Ivey DET 12.6 3.6 3.4
10 Ausar Thompson DET 11.4 8.6 1.9
11 Isaiah Stewart DET 10.9 6.2 1.3
12 Georges Niang CLE 10.2 3.6 1.5
13 Killian Hayes DET 9.8 3.1 3.5
14 Marvin Bagley III DET 9.1 4.9 1.4
15 Isaiah Livers DET 8.9 2.8 1.6
16 Kevin Knox II DET 8.6 3.0 1.0
17 Alec Burks DET 8.1 2.1 2.0
18 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 8.0 2.3 2.6
19 Isaac Okoro CLE 7.9 3.6 1.7
20 Stanley Umude DET 6.8 2.6 1.0
21 Marcus Sasser DET 6.7 1.7 2.8
22 James Wiseman DET 4.3 2.9 0.6
23 Isaiah Mobley CLE 3.0 1.7 0.9
24 Sam Merrill CLE 2.6 0.8 0.5
25 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.3 2.1 0.6
26 Damian Jones CLE 1.6 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.