NBA games

ORL @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
101–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL22293416101
BKN43302531129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home BKN
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cole Anthony 31 20 6 1
Franz Wagner S 34 20 7 5
Paolo Banchero S 34 19 10 8
Moritz Wagner 22 18 2 2
Jalen Suggs S 22 7 0 2
Joe Ingles 16 5 2 2
Gary Harris 21 4 1 2
Goga Bitadze S 15 3 5 0
Caleb Houstan 16 3 0 0
Anthony Black S 19 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mikal Bridges S 35 42 5 3
Spencer Dinwiddie S 35 22 4 3
Cam Thomas S 38 20 7 5
Cameron Johnson S 30 14 7 3
Dennis Smith Jr. 21 10 11 6
Trendon Watford 7 7 4 1
Nic Claxton S 24 6 7 1
Day'Ron Sharpe 24 5 6 2
Royce O'Neale 26 3 6 7

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mikal Bridges · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Mikal Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Mikal Bridges BKN
12%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
3 Jalen Suggs ORL
11%
4 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
11%
5 Cameron Johnson BKN
11%
6 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
7 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
8 Goga Bitadze ORL
9%
9 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
7%
10 Anthony Black ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
34%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Mikal Bridges BKN 23.8 6.4 4.2
2 Cam Thomas BKN 23.6 3.8 2.5
3 Franz Wagner ORL 23.4 5.8 3.6
4 Paolo Banchero ORL 22.4 6.5 4.3
5 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 19.1 4.6 7.1
6 Cole Anthony ORL 17.6 5.0 4.8
7 Cameron Johnson BKN 16.2 5.6 2.9
8 Jalen Suggs ORL 15.3 3.5 3.1
9 Nic Claxton BKN 12.3 8.7 1.6
10 Moritz Wagner ORL 12.1 4.7 1.7
11 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 12.0 3.0 1.7
12 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 9.6 4.6 1.5
13 Royce O'Neale BKN 9.3 4.4 2.8
14 Goga Bitadze ORL 8.7 7.2 2.2
15 Joe Ingles ORL 7.4 2.7 3.6
16 Gary Harris ORL 7.4 2.1 1.8
17 Jonathan Isaac ORL 7.2 5.7 0.7
18 Trendon Watford BKN 6.9 3.4 1.5
19 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.1 6.2 1.1
20 Harry Giles III BKN 5.6 2.8 0.3
21 Anthony Black ORL 5.4 2.7 1.5
22 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 4.7 1.6 2.6
23 Caleb Houstan ORL 3.3 1.3 0.6
24 Chuma Okeke ORL 2.6 1.3 0.7
25 Admiral Schofield ORL 2.4 1.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.