NBA games

MIN @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
123–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN30322635123
CHA23362830117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home CHA
82% 18%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 32 28 7 5
Rudy Gobert S 39 26 12 0
Naz Reid 25 23 5 2
Mike Conley S 34 14 5 10
Kyle Anderson 26 11 6 4
Troy Brown Jr. S 32 9 3 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 30 6 2 2
Shake Milton 23 6 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Terry Rozier S 35 23 6 7
Miles Bridges S 36 22 3 4
P.J. Washington 31 18 7 5
Gordon Hayward S 31 17 1 3
Brandon Miller S 36 14 5 3
Mark Williams S 29 11 6 0
Ish Smith 16 6 4 5
Nick Richards 9 4 3 1
Bryce McGowens 16 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Karl-Anthony Towns · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Karl-Anthony Towns makes 7-foot two point shot (Mike Conley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Terry Rozier CHA
14%
2 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
10%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
4 Brandon Miller CHA
10%
5 Mark Williams CHA
10%
6 Gordon Hayward CHA
9%
7 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
8 Mike Conley MIN
9%
9 Bryce McGowens CHA
7%
10 Troy Brown Jr. MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
24%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 25.3 9.7 4.1
2 Terry Rozier CHA 22.3 3.7 6.0
3 Miles Bridges CHA 20.9 7.3 3.2
4 Brandon Miller CHA 14.3 3.8 2.0
5 Rudy Gobert MIN 13.0 10.8 1.5
6 Gordon Hayward CHA 12.8 5.0 4.1
7 Mark Williams CHA 11.9 10.8 1.4
8 P.J. Washington CHA 11.9 5.6 2.3
9 Mike Conley MIN 10.5 2.7 6.7
10 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 10.1 2.9 2.5
11 Naz Reid MIN 9.8 4.0 1.1
12 Kyle Anderson MIN 8.1 4.2 3.3
13 Luka Garza MIN 6.5 2.4 0.6
14 Nick Richards CHA 6.3 5.3 0.5
15 Shake Milton MIN 5.9 2.4 1.7
16 Bryce McGowens CHA 5.8 2.1 1.0
17 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 5.6 2.8 0.9
18 Ish Smith CHA 4.7 2.1 2.1
19 JT Thor CHA 4.6 2.4 0.7
20 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 4.6 1.5 0.7
21 Daishen Nix MIN 4.1 1.4 1.3
22 Theo Maledon CHA 4.1 1.5 2.0
23 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 3.4 1.1 1.4
24 Josh Minott MIN 2.0 1.0 0.4
25 Leaky Black CHA 2.0 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.