NBA games

DEN @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
119–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN41292425119
PHX30332820111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home PHX
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 35 21 5 16
Reggie Jackson S 29 20 2 4
Michael Porter Jr. S 37 19 10 4
Justin Holiday S 25 15 2 4
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 35 15 1 6
Julian Strawther 18 11 3 0
Christian Braun 22 8 4 4
Peyton Watson 25 8 3 0
DeAndre Jordan 13 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jusuf Nurkic S 33 31 6 2
Kevin Durant S 36 30 4 11
Eric Gordon S 33 16 3 3
Josh Okogie 26 13 4 0
Grayson Allen S 37 13 10 3
Keita Bates-Diop S 17 4 1 1
Jordan Goodwin 20 2 6 0
Nassir Little 19 2 2 0
Drew Eubanks 15 0 6 1
Chimezie Metu 4 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Justin Holiday · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Justin Holiday makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Durant PHX
18%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
14%
3 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
11%
4 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
10%
5 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
10%
6 Eric Gordon PHX
10%
7 Grayson Allen PHX
9%
8 Josh Okogie PHX
9%
9 Justin Holiday DEN
8%
10 Reggie Jackson DEN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
71%
Jumper
10%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 31.2 6.3 6.7
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 29.7 12.7 10.2
3 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 17.8 7.3 1.8
4 Reggie Jackson DEN 17.2 3.9 4.9
5 Eric Gordon PHX 14.4 2.6 3.0
6 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 12.9 9.2 3.4
7 Grayson Allen PHX 12.7 4.1 2.7
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 12.4 2.5 3.2
9 Christian Braun DEN 9.7 3.5 1.4
10 Drew Eubanks PHX 6.6 3.8 1.1
11 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 6.3 3.7 1.0
12 Josh Okogie PHX 6.2 3.1 1.2
13 Jordan Goodwin PHX 6.0 3.1 2.0
14 Saben Lee PHX 5.9 1.5 2.0
15 Nassir Little PHX 5.7 2.3 0.7
16 DeAndre Jordan DEN 5.6 4.1 2.1
17 Yuta Watanabe PHX 5.6 2.3 0.9
18 Justin Holiday DEN 5.4 1.9 1.1
19 Julian Strawther DEN 4.6 1.5 1.1
20 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.9 2.4 0.5
21 Peyton Watson DEN 3.5 2.0 0.7
22 Chimezie Metu PHX 3.5 1.8 0.6
23 Braxton Key DEN 3.4 2.3 1.0
24 Collin Gillespie DEN 3.0 1.0 0.8
25 Bol Bol PHX 2.4 1.1 0.4
26 Udoka Azubuike PHX 1.9 2.2 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.