NBA games

SA @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
106121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA31302025106
NO32312632121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home NO
10% 90%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell 27 14 0 1
Jeremy Sochan S 31 13 3 4
Julian Champagnie S 22 12 5 3
Zach Collins S 24 12 5 3
Keldon Johnson S 33 11 7 3
Cedi Osman 27 11 2 5
Tre Jones 23 10 3 3
Malaki Branham S 22 10 2 0
Charles Bassey 19 8 11 3
Sandro Mamukelashvili 6 3 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jonas Valanciunas S 31 24 12 1
CJ McCollum S 38 19 3 8
Trey Murphy III 22 18 3 1
Herbert Jones S 31 17 4 0
Brandon Ingram S 34 14 5 7
Zion Williamson S 26 12 4 7
Naji Marshall 19 10 6 0
Jordan Hawkins 15 3 0 0
Dyson Daniels 12 2 2 1
Cody Zeller 13 2 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julian Champagnie · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Julian Champagnie makes 23-foot three point shot (Keldon Johnson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
15%
2 Jonas Valanciunas NO
13%
3 Zach Collins SA
12%
4 Brandon Ingram NO
12%
5 Keldon Johnson SA
11%
6 CJ McCollum NO
10%
7 Jeremy Sochan SA
9%
8 Herbert Jones NO
9%
9 Malaki Branham SA
7%
10 Devin Vassell SA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
17%
Layup
45%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 25.8 6.3 6.0
2 Brandon Ingram NO 25.3 5.2 5.9
3 CJ McCollum NO 19.9 4.5 5.4
4 Keldon Johnson SA 18.8 6.7 4.6
5 Devin Vassell SA 18.0 3.9 3.4
6 Jonas Valanciunas NO 16.0 9.1 3.3
7 Zach Collins SA 15.8 5.7 4.0
8 Jeremy Sochan SA 14.9 5.6 4.5
9 Jordan Hawkins NO 14.1 3.9 2.5
10 Herbert Jones NO 13.1 4.4 3.8
11 Dyson Daniels NO 10.4 5.4 4.4
12 Naji Marshall NO 9.7 4.7 2.5
13 Malaki Branham SA 8.5 1.9 2.4
14 Tre Jones SA 8.2 2.8 4.5
15 Cedi Osman SA 6.8 2.1 1.2
16 Jose Alvarado NO 6.7 2.2 1.9
17 Julian Champagnie SA 6.5 2.1 1.1
18 Devonte' Graham SA 3.7 1.1 1.4
19 Charles Bassey SA 3.2 4.0 1.0
20 Cody Zeller NO 3.2 3.7 1.1
21 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.1 1.3 0.7
22 Kira Lewis Jr. NO 3.0 0.9 1.3
23 Blake Wesley SA 2.4 0.9 1.4
24 Dominick Barlow SA 2.3 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.