NBA games

MEM @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
108–94
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM28312029108
DAL2024282294

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home DAL
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 34 30 4 5
Jaylen Nowell 26 19 4 1
Santi Aldama 33 17 12 3
Vince Williams Jr. 26 15 9 3
David Roddy S 24 6 6 3
Derrick Rose S 20 6 2 3
Bismack Biyombo S 23 4 6 4
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 14 4 4 2
Xavier Tillman 22 4 2 2
Ziaire Williams 10 3 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Grant Williams S 31 16 8 3
Derrick Jones Jr. S 31 16 4 1
Seth Curry 16 12 2 2
Kyrie Irving S 36 10 5 5
Josh Green S 31 10 2 5
Jaden Hardy 21 8 5 5
Markieff Morris 14 6 3 1
Richaun Holmes 18 5 7 2
Dereck Lively II S 23 4 5 1
Dexter Dennis 4 4 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Derrick Jones Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:47 Q1
"Derrick Jones Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
13%
2 Desmond Bane MEM
12%
3 Kyrie Irving DAL
11%
4 Dereck Lively II DAL
11%
5 Bismack Biyombo MEM
11%
6 Derrick Rose MEM
9%
7 Josh Green DAL
8%
8 David Roddy MEM
8%
9 Jacob Gilyard MEM
8%
10 Grant Williams DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
33%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.4 4.5 5.0
2 Desmond Bane MEM 22.7 4.5 6.6
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 18.6 5.6 2.0
4 Santi Aldama MEM 15.8 5.9 2.2
5 Bismack Biyombo MEM 9.8 8.1 1.9
6 Derrick Rose MEM 9.8 2.4 3.4
7 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 9.5 4.4 1.4
8 Dereck Lively II DAL 9.5 7.8 1.4
9 David Roddy MEM 9.3 4.1 1.3
10 Xavier Tillman MEM 9.0 6.0 1.8
11 Ziaire Williams MEM 8.2 3.6 1.5
12 Grant Williams DAL 7.2 3.1 1.9
13 Josh Green DAL 7.0 3.0 2.3
14 Jacob Gilyard MEM 5.7 1.5 3.0
15 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.9 1.5 1.0
16 A.J. Lawson DAL 4.4 2.7 0.7
17 John Konchar MEM 4.1 3.2 1.4
18 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 4.1 2.8 0.9
19 Dwight Powell DAL 4.1 3.2 1.3
20 Dexter Dennis DAL 3.7 1.5 0.7
21 Jaylen Nowell MEM 3.2 1.7 0.9
22 Richaun Holmes DAL 3.2 3.6 0.7
23 Seth Curry DAL 3.1 1.2 0.7
24 Kenneth Lofton Jr. MEM 3.0 1.3 0.8
25 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 2.6 1.5 0.3
26 Shaquille Harrison MEM 1.8 1.9 0.4
27 Markieff Morris DAL 1.8 0.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.