NBA games

NY @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
119–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY34233329119
TOR26312029106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home TOR
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 37 22 5 8
Donte DiVincenzo 22 21 1 1
Julius Randle S 35 20 10 9
Josh Hart 31 17 8 2
RJ Barrett S 27 15 4 6
Immanuel Quickley 19 10 1 1
Mitchell Robinson S 32 6 5 1
Isaiah Hartenstein 16 4 8 0
Quentin Grimes S 21 4 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 37 29 9 4
Pascal Siakam S 34 21 8 3
Jakob Poeltl S 28 12 12 1
Chris Boucher 19 11 3 2
Dennis Schroder S 37 10 1 9
OG Anunoby S 27 9 5 3
Precious Achiuwa 17 8 6 1
Gary Trent Jr. 23 4 1 4
Jalen McDaniels 7 2 2 1
Malachi Flynn 11 0 1 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Scottie Barnes · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:31 Q1
"Scottie Barnes makes 10-foot two point shot (Dennis Schroder assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Julius Randle NY
15%
2 Pascal Siakam TOR
14%
3 RJ Barrett NY
11%
4 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
5 Dennis Schroder TOR
10%
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
7 Jalen Brunson NY
8%
8 OG Anunoby TOR
8%
9 Mitchell Robinson NY
7%
10 Quentin Grimes NY
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
26%
Layup
45%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 25.9 3.9 6.2
2 Julius Randle NY 25.2 9.5 6.3
3 Pascal Siakam TOR 23.8 7.2 5.9
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 19.1 7.8 5.4
5 RJ Barrett NY 18.5 4.1 2.8
6 Dennis Schroder TOR 16.8 3.7 5.7
7 Immanuel Quickley NY 16.1 3.5 2.6
8 OG Anunoby TOR 14.7 4.3 2.7
9 Jakob Poeltl TOR 13.1 8.3 3.2
10 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 11.3 2.1 1.5
11 Josh Hart NY 10.5 5.6 2.5
12 Donte DiVincenzo NY 8.8 2.8 1.9
13 Mitchell Robinson NY 7.4 9.5 1.0
14 Evan Fournier NY 7.0 1.8 0.7
15 Precious Achiuwa TOR 6.8 5.2 2.0
16 Quentin Grimes NY 6.4 1.6 1.5
17 Chris Boucher TOR 6.0 3.2 0.6
18 Malachi Flynn TOR 6.0 2.5 1.8
19 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 5.3 4.9 0.9
20 Jalen McDaniels TOR 3.6 1.3 0.7
21 Otto Porter Jr. TOR 3.0 2.0 0.4
22 DaQuan Jeffries NY 2.6 0.9 0.7
23 Miles McBride NY 2.4 0.8 0.6
24 Jericho Sims NY 2.1 2.1 0.6
25 Thaddeus Young TOR 2.1 1.4 0.7
26 Garrett Temple TOR 1.6 0.5 0.3
27 Ryan Arcidiacono NY 1.4 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.