NBA games

PHI @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
119–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI36362522119
BOS44252630125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home BOS
14% 86%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Patrick Beverley S 38 26 8 7
De'Anthony Melton S 37 21 4 2
Robert Covington 30 18 5 1
Tobias Harris S 38 14 5 3
Paul Reed S 22 14 4 1
Marcus Morris Sr. S 28 13 7 1
Mo Bamba 20 11 6 1
KJ Martin 13 2 2 0
Furkan Korkmaz 15 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 27 21 7 4
Derrick White S 32 21 6 5
Al Horford S 33 20 6 3
Jaylen Brown S 35 20 4 0
Jrue Holiday S 35 13 5 6
Sam Hauser 26 11 5 1
Payton Pritchard 23 10 2 5
Neemias Queta 10 5 5 0
Dalano Banton 10 4 5 1
Luke Kornet 8 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:51 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes 1-foot dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
16%
2 Tobias Harris PHI
13%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
13%
4 Tyrese Maxey PHI
12%
5 Derrick White BOS
9%
6 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
7 De'Anthony Melton PHI
7%
8 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI
7%
9 Al Horford BOS
6%
10 Nicolas Batum PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
39%
Jumper
13%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 27.0 7.5 5.3
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 25.7 4.2 6.0
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.9 4.7 4.6
4 Tobias Harris PHI 18.0 6.0 2.9
5 De'Anthony Melton PHI 16.0 4.4 3.5
6 Derrick White BOS 14.0 3.7 5.8
7 Jrue Holiday BOS 13.6 6.8 5.2
8 Sam Hauser BOS 10.0 3.5 1.5
9 Al Horford BOS 9.4 6.3 2.8
10 Payton Pritchard BOS 7.9 3.0 2.1
11 Nicolas Batum PHI 7.4 3.9 1.4
12 Robert Covington PHI 6.1 4.8 1.0
13 Paul Reed PHI 5.5 3.9 1.2
14 Neemias Queta BOS 5.4 4.5 0.5
15 Luke Kornet BOS 5.2 4.0 0.7
16 Patrick Beverley PHI 5.1 2.5 1.9
17 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI 4.4 1.9 0.6
18 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 3.8 1.1 0.8
19 Dalano Banton BOS 3.5 1.8 0.7
20 Lamar Stevens BOS 3.3 1.8 0.4
21 Mo Bamba PHI 3.2 2.3 0.5
22 KJ Martin PHI 2.9 1.4 0.6
23 Jaden Springer PHI 2.9 1.8 0.7
24 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 2.4 1.1 0.6
25 Oshae Brissett BOS 1.8 2.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.