NBA games

WSH @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
125–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH36252836125
ORL31273438130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home ORL
8% 92%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 37 27 6 1
Daniel Gafford S 27 18 11 3
Corey Kispert 23 15 1 3
Jordan Poole S 30 14 4 4
Landry Shamet 18 13 0 2
Tyus Jones S 26 13 3 6
Bilal Coulibaly 32 12 5 0
Danilo Gallinari 21 7 6 1
Deni Avdija S 20 6 3 5
Johnny Davis 6 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 34 31 7 8
Paolo Banchero S 38 28 13 7
Moritz Wagner 23 18 6 0
Jalen Suggs S 27 15 2 4
Joe Ingles 25 14 3 7
Gary Harris 22 8 0 0
Anthony Black S 23 6 2 3
Cole Anthony 17 4 1 2
Goga Bitadze S 24 3 5 4
Jonathan Isaac 7 3 5 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deni Avdija · Layup (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Deni Avdija makes 2-foot two point shot (Daniel Gafford assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH
13%
2 Jordan Poole WSH
12%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
4 Jalen Suggs ORL
11%
5 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
6 Daniel Gafford WSH
10%
7 Goga Bitadze ORL
9%
8 Anthony Black ORL
8%
9 Tyus Jones WSH
8%
10 Deni Avdija WSH
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
51%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH 24.1 5.6 6.2
2 Franz Wagner ORL 23.7 6.0 3.8
3 Paolo Banchero ORL 23.1 6.7 4.7
4 Jordan Poole WSH 19.3 3.8 3.8
5 Cole Anthony ORL 18.7 5.2 5.3
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 16.6 3.7 3.0
7 Deni Avdija WSH 13.2 5.2 3.4
8 Moritz Wagner ORL 12.5 4.6 2.1
9 Tyus Jones WSH 11.6 3.2 4.1
10 Daniel Gafford WSH 10.0 7.4 1.6
11 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 10.0 3.9 1.9
12 Corey Kispert WSH 9.9 2.8 1.7
13 Goga Bitadze ORL 8.9 8.0 2.2
14 Danilo Gallinari WSH 7.8 3.1 1.5
15 Gary Harris ORL 7.6 2.3 2.0
16 Landry Shamet WSH 7.2 1.9 1.3
17 Joe Ingles ORL 7.2 2.8 3.7
18 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.8 4.8 0.6
19 Anthony Black ORL 5.5 2.7 1.7
20 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 4.8 1.8 0.8
21 Caleb Houstan ORL 4.0 1.6 0.8
22 Mike Muscala WSH 3.8 2.5 0.8
23 Jared Butler WSH 3.7 1.2 1.5
24 Jett Howard ORL 3.6 0.8 0.5
25 Chuma Okeke ORL 3.3 1.5 0.9
26 Admiral Schofield ORL 3.1 2.0 0.8
27 Anthony Gill WSH 2.9 1.5 0.6
28 Johnny Davis WSH 2.6 1.6 0.6
29 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 0.9 0.6 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.