NBA games

LAC @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
114–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC24262737114
GS31302534120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home GS
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 35 23 7 0
James Harden S 37 18 3 7
Ivica Zubac S 27 18 13 0
Paul George S 37 15 1 10
Russell Westbrook 26 14 11 6
Daniel Theis 15 10 2 2
Terance Mann S 34 9 5 1
Norman Powell 18 5 0 0
Moussa Diabate 1 2 0 0
Amir Coffey 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 33 26 7 8
Klay Thompson S 34 22 6 2
Jonathan Kuminga 23 17 6 3
Brandin Podziemski 31 13 8 2
Moses Moody S 28 13 3 1
Draymond Green S 29 13 5 5
Dario Saric 27 13 5 5
Kevon Looney S 13 2 5 2
Cory Joseph 22 1 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Draymond Green · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Draymond Green makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kevon Looney assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paul George LAC
16%
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC
13%
3 James Harden LAC
12%
4 Ivica Zubac LAC
12%
5 Draymond Green GS
10%
6 Klay Thompson GS
10%
7 Kevon Looney GS
10%
8 Terance Mann LAC
9%
9 Stephen Curry GS
7%
10 Norman Powell LAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
32%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 26.9 4.8 4.6
2 Paul George LAC 23.8 6.4 4.4
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC 23.1 6.0 3.3
4 James Harden LAC 17.1 4.4 6.2
5 Klay Thompson GS 14.6 3.9 2.6
6 Dario Saric GS 12.0 5.6 2.5
7 Ivica Zubac LAC 11.8 9.7 1.4
8 Russell Westbrook LAC 11.0 5.9 4.5
9 Norman Powell LAC 11.0 2.6 1.3
10 Draymond Green GS 10.0 4.9 4.8
11 Xavier Moon LAC 9.6 3.6 3.0
12 Jonathan Kuminga GS 9.1 3.1 1.4
13 Terance Mann LAC 8.5 4.0 2.1
14 Bones Hyland LAC 8.4 1.9 2.1
15 Moses Moody GS 8.0 3.5 1.1
16 Kevon Looney GS 6.7 8.1 2.3
17 Brandin Podziemski GS 5.9 3.0 1.7
18 Daniel Theis LAC 5.7 4.0 1.0
19 Jerome Robinson GS 4.3 2.5 1.0
20 Kobe Brown LAC 4.1 2.3 0.7
21 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.5 2.2 0.9
22 Cory Joseph GS 3.5 1.6 2.0
23 Moussa Diabate LAC 2.9 2.7 0.4
24 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 2.9 2.2 0.4
25 Lester Quinones GS 2.9 0.9 0.9
26 Amir Coffey LAC 2.7 1.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.