NBA games

ATL @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
137–135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL26363936137
SA35313930135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home SA
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 40 45 4 14
Dejounte Murray S 35 24 3 2
Bogdan Bogdanovic 32 14 2 3
Saddiq Bey S 34 13 4 0
De'Andre Hunter S 22 12 6 2
Clint Capela S 23 12 9 1
Onyeka Okongwu 28 11 8 0
Garrison Mathews 12 3 1 0
Wesley Matthews 15 3 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jeremy Sochan S 36 33 8 6
Devin Vassell 27 25 4 4
Keldon Johnson S 33 22 11 3
Victor Wembanyama S 29 21 12 2
Julian Champagnie 20 15 3 0
Zach Collins S 34 11 2 7
Cedi Osman 15 3 1 2
Tre Jones 24 3 2 7
Malaki Branham S 17 2 3 3
Charles Bassey 4 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Keldon Johnson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Keldon Johnson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Zach Collins assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
13%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
3 Dejounte Murray ATL
11%
4 Zach Collins SA
11%
5 De'Andre Hunter ATL
10%
6 Keldon Johnson SA
10%
7 Clint Capela ATL
10%
8 Jeremy Sochan SA
8%
9 Saddiq Bey ATL
7%
10 Malaki Branham SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
48%
Jumper
13%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 28.5 3.5 11.3
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 21.8 10.6 3.9
3 Dejounte Murray ATL 20.4 4.3 5.6
4 Devin Vassell SA 18.3 3.7 3.2
5 Keldon Johnson SA 18.2 6.3 4.6
6 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 17.3 4.1 2.5
7 Zach Collins SA 16.9 6.2 4.0
8 De'Andre Hunter ATL 14.9 4.2 2.0
9 Jeremy Sochan SA 13.9 5.6 4.4
10 Saddiq Bey ATL 12.9 5.5 1.8
11 Clint Capela ATL 10.5 9.5 1.3
12 Malaki Branham SA 8.9 1.7 2.2
13 Tre Jones SA 8.7 3.0 5.0
14 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 8.3 6.4 1.5
15 Cedi Osman SA 6.2 1.9 1.1
16 Doug McDermott SA 5.5 1.3 1.8
17 Julian Champagnie SA 4.7 1.8 1.0
18 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.4 1.7 0.8
19 Trent Forrest ATL 4.3 1.6 2.2
20 Bruno Fernando ATL 4.1 3.0 1.1
21 Devonte' Graham SA 4.0 1.3 1.7
22 AJ Griffin ATL 3.7 1.4 0.7
23 Wesley Matthews ATL 3.4 1.7 0.9
24 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.4 1.4 0.8
25 Charles Bassey SA 3.0 4.2 0.9
26 Dominick Barlow SA 2.8 1.3 0.4
27 Blake Wesley SA 2.8 1.0 1.6
28 Patty Mills ATL 2.2 0.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.