NBA games

LAL @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
110–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL37232822110
OKC30423625133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home OKC
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 36 31 14 2
LeBron James S 35 21 12 6
D'Angelo Russell S 32 16 3 10
Austin Reaves 29 14 2 3
Max Christie S 21 8 0 0
Christian Wood 21 7 4 1
Taurean Prince S 32 6 1 2
Jalen Hood-Schifino 19 3 1 0
Alex Fudge 4 2 1 0
Colin Castleton 4 2 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 35 33 4 7
Jalen Williams S 29 21 5 7
Chet Holmgren S 28 18 5 1
Josh Giddey S 21 14 8 1
Luguentz Dort S 28 12 7 3
Cason Wallace 22 10 3 1
Isaiah Joe 20 10 5 0
Aaron Wiggins 13 6 5 2
Lindy Waters III 12 5 1 1
Jaylin Williams 7 3 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
D'Angelo Russell · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:49 Q1
"D'Angelo Russell makes 13-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
17%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
3 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
11%
4 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
5 D'Angelo Russell LAL
9%
6 Josh Giddey OKC
9%
7 LeBron James LAL
8%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
9 Max Christie LAL
7%
10 Taurean Prince LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
40%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.6 5.3 7.0
2 LeBron James LAL 25.8 6.9 7.0
3 Anthony Davis LAL 22.4 12.7 3.8
4 D'Angelo Russell LAL 19.1 4.2 6.3
5 Jalen Williams OKC 19.1 4.2 3.8
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 18.7 7.8 3.1
7 Austin Reaves LAL 14.6 5.6 5.5
8 Josh Giddey OKC 13.0 5.9 4.8
9 Cam Reddish LAL 9.5 2.9 1.4
10 Taurean Prince LAL 9.3 3.2 1.7
11 Isaiah Joe OKC 9.3 2.5 1.4
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 7.9 3.5 1.5
13 Christian Wood LAL 7.1 5.5 1.0
14 Cason Wallace OKC 6.6 2.2 1.5
15 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.9 2.6 2.0
16 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 5.7 2.6 2.9
17 Max Christie LAL 5.4 3.1 1.4
18 Aaron Wiggins OKC 4.5 2.1 0.9
19 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.4 3.4 1.4
20 Tre Mann OKC 3.9 1.7 1.1
21 Davis Bertans OKC 3.8 0.8 0.5
22 Vasilije Micic OKC 3.7 0.8 2.9
23 D'Moi Hodge LAL 3.4 1.6 0.6
24 Lindy Waters III OKC 3.0 1.1 0.5
25 Colin Castleton LAL 2.8 3.4 0.3
26 Alex Fudge LAL 2.7 1.8 0.4
27 Maxwell Lewis LAL 2.6 1.1 0.6
28 Aleksej Pokusevski OKC 1.3 0.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.