NBA games

UTAH @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
90–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH2324192490
MIN20293517101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home MIN
17% 83%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Simone Fontecchio S 34 16 5 5
Collin Sexton 23 14 3 4
Ochai Agbaji S 36 13 6 3
Keyonte George S 33 12 4 4
John Collins S 28 9 12 0
Kelly Olynyk 14 8 4 3
Walker Kessler 27 7 5 2
Talen Horton-Tucker 19 7 1 1
Luka Samanic 12 2 4 0
Omer Yurtseven S 14 2 7 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 37 32 11 4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 36 20 5 7
Rudy Gobert S 37 15 13 0
Troy Brown Jr. S 29 8 3 2
Mike Conley S 29 8 3 7
Naz Reid 22 6 3 0
Shake Milton 20 5 2 3
Kyle Anderson 19 4 1 6
Daishen Nix 10 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Karl-Anthony Towns · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Karl-Anthony Towns makes 7-foot two point shot (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
16%
2 John Collins UTAH
15%
3 Rudy Gobert MIN
15%
4 Keyonte George UTAH
12%
5 Omer Yurtseven UTAH
11%
6 Mike Conley MIN
10%
7 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN
10%
8 Simone Fontecchio UTAH
9%
9 Ochai Agbaji UTAH
0%
10 Kelly Olynyk UTAH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
38%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 25.4 9.6 4.3
2 John Collins UTAH 14.3 7.5 1.2
3 Rudy Gobert MIN 13.4 10.5 1.6
4 Keyonte George UTAH 12.7 3.6 5.7
5 Mike Conley MIN 11.3 2.6 6.7
6 Collin Sexton UTAH 10.9 3.0 3.5
7 Naz Reid MIN 9.9 3.8 1.1
8 Walker Kessler UTAH 9.4 7.9 1.0
9 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 8.7 3.1 3.8
10 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 8.7 2.5 2.2
11 Kyle Anderson MIN 8.5 4.2 3.6
12 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 8.3 5.7 3.4
13 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 7.5 2.7 1.2
14 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 7.5 3.5 1.3
15 Luka Garza MIN 6.7 2.5 0.7
16 Shake Milton MIN 6.1 2.2 1.6
17 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 5.2 3.6 0.8
18 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 5.1 2.7 0.8
19 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 3.5 1.1 1.4
20 Luka Samanic UTAH 3.4 1.7 0.6
21 Daishen Nix MIN 3.2 0.8 1.2
22 Josh Minott MIN 2.1 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.