Thursday, November 30, 2023

MIL @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final

113–120

Final

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q5	T
MIL	24	31	25	26	7	113
CHI	26	23	31	26	14	120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (MIL) games this season

MIL away

home CHI

37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Giannis Antetokounmpo S	39	26	14	5	11/17	0/1	-8
Brook Lopez S	39	20	4	0	7/12	6/10	2
Malik Beasley S	41	19	3	3	7/19	5/15	1
Damian Lillard S	43	18	5	13	7/16	1/6	9
Khris Middleton S	27	9	3	3	3/10	1/4	-8
MarJon Beauchamp	22	7	3	0	3/7	1/4	11
Cameron Payne	12	6	1	1	2/6	2/5	-20
Andre Jackson Jr.	12	4	1	1	2/3	0/1	-8
Bobby Portis	31	4	9	2	2/8	0/2	-14

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Nikola Vucevic S	40	29	10	6	11/21	2/4	-6
Coby White S	45	23	4	7	7/20	4/11	1
Ayo Dosunmu S	39	14	6	6	6/8	1/3	-8
Patrick Williams S	36	12	2	1	6/14	0/4	-7
Alex Caruso S	29	11	1	5	4/9	3/5	-9
Jevon Carter	18	11	2	1	5/10	1/2	22
Torrey Craig	27	10	8	2	4/10	2/6	14
Andre Drummond	13	10	14	1	2/2	0/0	13
Julian Phillips	14	0	3	3	0/3	0/2	14
Dalen Terry	4	0	1	0	0/1	0/0	1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80

Trained on 67736 player-games

Actual

Khris Middleton · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1

"Khris Middleton makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot"

Most likely first scorer (top 10)

1 Damian Lillard MIL

18%

2 Nikola Vucevic CHI

15%

3 Brook Lopez MIL

14%

4 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL

13%

5 Khris Middleton MIL

12%

6 Patrick Williams CHI

7 Coby White CHI

8 Malik Beasley MIL

9 Bobby Portis MIL

10 MarJon Beauchamp MIL

Method (given top scorer)

3PT

11%

Dunk

Free Throw

38%

Jumper

22%

Layup

27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)

#	Player	Team	Pred PTS	Pred REB	Pred AST	Actual PTS	Actual REB	Actual AST
1	Giannis Antetokounmpo	MIL	30.0	11.5	7.9	26	14	5
2	Damian Lillard	MIL	26.9	4.2	7.4	18	5	13
3	Coby White	CHI	16.6	3.0	3.9	23	4	7
4	Nikola Vucevic	CHI	16.4	9.6	3.7	29	10	6
5	Brook Lopez	MIL	15.3	6.2	1.9	20	4	0
6	Khris Middleton	MIL	13.3	4.1	4.3	9	3	3
7	Bobby Portis	MIL	12.0	6.8	1.3	4	9	2
8	Malik Beasley	MIL	11.3	4.7	1.5	19	3	3
9	Alex Caruso	CHI	11.0	3.1	2.1	11	1	5
10	Patrick Williams	CHI	9.8	4.6	1.5	12	2	1
11	Cameron Payne	MIL	6.3	1.8	2.7	6	1	1
12	Ayo Dosunmu	CHI	6.3	1.9	1.7	14	6	6
13	Torrey Craig	CHI	6.2	4.4	1.1	10	8	2
14	Andre Drummond	CHI	5.4	6.4	0.8	10	14	1
15	MarJon Beauchamp	MIL	5.2	2.6	1.2	7	3	0
16	Jevon Carter	CHI	4.4	1.4	1.2	11	2	1
17	Andre Jackson Jr.	MIL	3.5	1.7	0.8	4	1	1
18	AJ Green	MIL	3.4	1.3	0.9	—	—	—
19	Terry Taylor	CHI	3.2	2.2	0.8	—	—	—
20	Onuralp Bitim	CHI	3.2	0.5	0.4	—	—	—
21	Dalen Terry	CHI	3.0	2.3	1.2	0	1	0
22	Julian Phillips	CHI	2.5	1.2	0.6	0	3	3
23	Thanasis Antetokounmpo	MIL	2.4	1.3	0.4	—	—	—
24	Robin Lopez	MIL	1.7	1.3	0.5	—	—	—

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.