NBA games

DET @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
112–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET17373325112
NY31233133118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home NY
6% 94%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 37 31 2 8
Killian Hayes S 28 23 3 4
Marcus Sasser 20 17 2 4
Jalen Duren S 34 10 12 2
Marvin Bagley III 14 8 3 1
Isaiah Livers S 27 6 4 1
Isaiah Stewart S 32 5 7 0
Jaden Ivey 13 5 2 1
Ausar Thompson 13 3 7 0
Kevin Knox II 9 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 40 42 6 8
Julius Randle S 38 29 10 8
RJ Barrett S 24 15 1 2
Donte DiVincenzo 23 12 3 2
Josh Hart 32 7 7 2
Mitchell Robinson S 31 6 9 1
Immanuel Quickley 19 5 1 2
Isaiah Hartenstein 17 2 3 0
Quentin Grimes S 16 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cade Cunningham · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Cade Cunningham makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
17%
2 RJ Barrett NY
11%
3 Julius Randle NY
11%
4 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
5 Jalen Duren DET
10%
6 Isaiah Stewart DET
9%
7 Mitchell Robinson NY
8%
8 Jalen Brunson NY
8%
9 Jaden Ivey DET
7%
10 Quentin Grimes NY
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
29%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 25.7 3.6 6.2
2 Julius Randle NY 25.6 10.2 6.0
3 Cade Cunningham DET 22.4 4.2 6.8
4 RJ Barrett NY 18.9 4.2 2.9
5 Immanuel Quickley NY 18.2 3.5 3.1
6 Jaden Ivey DET 12.7 3.6 3.4
7 Jalen Duren DET 12.4 10.2 2.6
8 Ausar Thompson DET 11.5 9.3 2.2
9 Isaiah Stewart DET 10.6 6.1 1.3
10 Josh Hart NY 10.2 5.4 2.4
11 Killian Hayes DET 9.6 3.0 3.9
12 Isaiah Livers DET 9.2 2.5 1.6
13 Alec Burks DET 9.2 2.3 2.0
14 Marvin Bagley III DET 9.1 4.7 1.3
15 Kevin Knox II DET 8.5 3.4 1.0
16 Donte DiVincenzo NY 8.5 2.7 2.0
17 Mitchell Robinson NY 7.9 9.5 1.1
18 Quentin Grimes NY 7.8 1.9 1.7
19 Marcus Sasser DET 7.3 1.9 2.7
20 Evan Fournier NY 7.3 1.8 0.8
21 Stanley Umude DET 6.6 2.5 1.0
22 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 5.9 4.8 1.0
23 James Wiseman DET 4.6 3.0 0.6
24 DaQuan Jeffries NY 3.2 1.1 0.8
25 Miles McBride NY 3.0 0.9 0.7
26 Jericho Sims NY 2.7 2.2 0.7
27 Ryan Arcidiacono NY 1.6 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.