NBA games

IND @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
132–142
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND38352732132
MIA33313345142

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home MIA
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 40 44 2 10
Obi Toppin S 33 25 2 3
Bruce Brown S 32 15 6 3
Myles Turner S 29 13 9 2
Buddy Hield S 31 12 5 5
Bennedict Mathurin 24 12 3 0
Aaron Nesmith 23 9 5 1
Andrew Nembhard 22 2 1 5
Isaiah Jackson 6 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 38 36 11 3
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 33 24 5 1
Josh Richardson 32 19 4 3
Duncan Robinson S 29 16 1 2
Kyle Lowry S 25 15 3 3
Caleb Martin 25 14 5 3
Bam Adebayo S 12 7 4 2
Kevin Love 17 5 8 6
Orlando Robinson 7 2 2 0
Haywood Highsmith S 15 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Obi Toppin · Layup (2 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Obi Toppin makes 3-foot two point shot (Buddy Hield assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
2 Myles Turner IND
10%
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA
9%
4 Obi Toppin IND
9%
5 Thomas Bryant MIA
7%
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND
7%
7 Josh Richardson MIA
7%
8 Bruce Brown IND
7%
9 Haywood Highsmith MIA
7%
10 Kevin Love MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
17%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
15%
Layup
51%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Haliburton IND 26.2 3.8 10.7
2 Bam Adebayo MIA 24.3 11.8 5.0
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA 23.7 4.5 4.4
4 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 17.4 4.6 3.5
5 Myles Turner IND 17.1 7.0 1.6
6 Duncan Robinson MIA 16.6 3.5 3.3
7 Bennedict Mathurin IND 13.6 4.2 1.7
8 Obi Toppin IND 13.2 3.3 1.8
9 Buddy Hield IND 12.9 2.9 2.1
10 Kyle Lowry MIA 12.9 3.8 4.5
11 Josh Richardson MIA 12.7 3.3 3.3
12 Bruce Brown IND 11.9 4.2 3.0
13 Aaron Nesmith IND 9.0 2.8 1.2
14 Andrew Nembhard IND 8.2 2.1 3.2
15 Caleb Martin MIA 8.1 3.0 1.5
16 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.4 3.4 1.7
17 Kevin Love MIA 7.2 5.5 1.8
18 T.J. McConnell IND 6.1 2.6 3.5
19 Orlando Robinson MIA 6.0 3.9 1.3
20 Nikola Jovic MIA 5.7 4.1 1.8
21 Thomas Bryant MIA 4.5 3.2 0.5
22 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.1 4.6 0.7
23 Jarace Walker IND 4.1 2.7 1.2
24 Jordan Nwora IND 3.8 1.7 0.7
25 Ben Sheppard IND 3.7 1.4 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.