NBA games

CHA @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
129–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA31422927129
BKN37343522128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home BKN
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Terry Rozier S 40 37 4 13
Miles Bridges S 38 23 5 2
Gordon Hayward S 32 22 6 6
Bryce McGowens S 22 14 2 3
Mark Williams S 32 12 12 1
P.J. Washington 33 10 8 5
Nick Smith Jr. 14 9 1 0
JT Thor 16 2 2 0
Ish Smith 13 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas 25 26 2 1
Mikal Bridges S 38 22 9 4
Nic Claxton S 29 20 14 2
Cameron Johnson S 28 15 6 2
Dorian Finney-Smith S 39 14 6 1
Day'Ron Sharpe 18 9 5 0
Spencer Dinwiddie S 34 9 4 8
Lonnie Walker IV 14 7 2 1
Trendon Watford 14 6 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bryce McGowens · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:51 Q1
"Bryce McGowens makes 25-foot three point jumper (Gordon Hayward assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Terry Rozier CHA
10%
2 Mikal Bridges BKN
10%
3 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
10%
4 Cameron Johnson BKN
10%
5 Cam Thomas BKN
10%
6 Nic Claxton BKN
9%
7 Brandon Miller CHA
9%
8 Mark Williams CHA
9%
9 Gordon Hayward CHA
8%
10 Miles Bridges CHA
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
26%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Mikal Bridges BKN 23.8 6.7 4.7
2 Cam Thomas BKN 22.3 4.0 2.4
3 Miles Bridges CHA 20.7 7.8 3.3
4 Terry Rozier CHA 20.7 4.1 5.5
5 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 19.6 4.5 7.0
6 Cameron Johnson BKN 16.5 5.7 3.3
7 Brandon Miller CHA 14.4 3.9 2.1
8 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 14.3 3.2 1.9
9 P.J. Washington CHA 12.6 5.1 2.1
10 Gordon Hayward CHA 12.5 5.0 4.3
11 Nic Claxton BKN 12.3 8.5 1.6
12 Mark Williams CHA 12.1 10.7 1.5
13 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 9.8 5.3 1.6
14 Royce O'Neale BKN 9.8 4.6 3.1
15 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.9 7.3 1.2
16 Trendon Watford BKN 6.3 3.6 1.6
17 Harry Giles III BKN 6.2 3.0 0.4
18 Bryce McGowens CHA 5.1 2.0 0.9
19 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 5.1 1.7 2.8
20 Theo Maledon CHA 4.6 1.7 2.1
21 JT Thor CHA 4.5 2.6 0.7
22 Ish Smith CHA 4.5 2.0 2.1
23 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 4.4 1.4 0.7
24 Leaky Black CHA 2.4 1.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.