NBA games

POR @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
103–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR22183429103
CLE2521292095

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home CLE
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shaedon Sharpe S 39 29 10 5
Jerami Grant S 28 13 2 3
Duop Reath 18 13 2 2
Malcolm Brogdon S 31 11 3 7
Deandre Ayton S 30 10 6 3
Matisse Thybulle 24 10 2 0
Toumani Camara S 24 9 2 1
Jabari Walker 24 6 12 1
Scoot Henderson 22 2 1 7
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 34 23 7 6
Evan Mobley S 34 20 8 3
Darius Garland S 37 15 4 7
Jarrett Allen S 38 12 10 2
Max Strus S 36 9 3 3
Georges Niang 19 8 1 2
Caris LeVert 26 5 2 2
Isaac Okoro 17 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deandre Ayton · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Deandre Ayton makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Malcolm Brogdon assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
13%
2 Deandre Ayton POR
12%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
12%
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR
10%
5 Malcolm Brogdon POR
10%
6 Darius Garland CLE
10%
7 Donovan Mitchell CLE
9%
8 Max Strus CLE
8%
9 Jerami Grant POR
7%
10 Toumani Camara POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
19%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
30%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 27.3 5.4 5.7
2 Jerami Grant POR 23.7 4.4 3.2
3 Darius Garland CLE 23.3 3.8 6.5
4 Evan Mobley CLE 19.5 11.0 3.3
5 Malcolm Brogdon POR 19.0 4.4 6.5
6 Max Strus CLE 17.1 5.5 4.9
7 Caris LeVert CLE 16.0 4.2 3.4
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 15.9 8.5 2.7
9 Shaedon Sharpe POR 15.7 5.0 3.7
10 Deandre Ayton POR 14.9 9.8 1.8
11 Scoot Henderson POR 11.2 2.6 4.4
12 Georges Niang CLE 9.8 3.8 1.4
13 Skylar Mays POR 9.7 2.4 4.8
14 Isaac Okoro CLE 8.8 4.0 1.8
15 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 8.5 2.5 2.5
16 Jabari Walker POR 8.1 4.6 1.1
17 Matisse Thybulle POR 7.8 2.4 1.7
18 Toumani Camara POR 6.7 3.7 1.3
19 Duop Reath POR 6.0 2.2 1.2
20 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.7 2.4 0.8
21 Sam Merrill CLE 2.5 0.9 0.5
22 Moses Brown POR 2.3 2.7 0.2
23 Kris Murray POR 2.0 0.9 0.3
24 Damian Jones CLE 1.4 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.