NBA games

LAC @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
131–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC35373029131
SAC27233136117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home SAC
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 37 34 9 3
James Harden S 39 26 3 6
Paul George S 40 19 3 7
Terance Mann S 31 18 3 1
Ivica Zubac S 30 14 8 3
Russell Westbrook 19 9 5 8
Daniel Theis 17 5 3 0
Kobe Brown 11 3 2 0
Norman Powell 13 3 1 0
Bones Hyland 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 38 40 5 3
Malik Monk 28 15 4 2
Sasha Vezenkov 24 13 5 0
Domantas Sabonis S 31 11 5 3
Harrison Barnes S 34 9 5 4
Davion Mitchell 13 9 3 3
Kevin Huerter S 26 7 5 5
Chris Duarte S 13 7 3 0
JaVale McGee 5 2 5 0
Colby Jones 1 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chris Duarte · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Chris Duarte makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (Kevin Huerter assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
17%
2 Paul George LAC
15%
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC
10%
4 De'Aaron Fox SAC
10%
5 James Harden LAC
10%
6 Ivica Zubac LAC
10%
7 Harrison Barnes SAC
8%
8 Terance Mann LAC
7%
9 Kevin Huerter SAC
7%
10 Chris Duarte SAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
33%
Jumper
10%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 29.7 4.6 6.4
2 Paul George LAC 24.4 6.7 4.0
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 23.0 11.7 7.6
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC 21.7 5.6 3.3
5 Kevin Huerter SAC 15.8 4.1 3.1
6 James Harden LAC 15.4 4.7 6.2
7 Malik Monk SAC 14.8 3.6 4.9
8 Ivica Zubac LAC 12.0 10.1 1.3
9 Harrison Barnes SAC 12.0 3.7 1.7
10 Russell Westbrook LAC 11.6 5.9 4.7
11 Norman Powell LAC 11.3 2.6 1.4
12 Bones Hyland LAC 9.5 2.0 2.4
13 Trey Lyles SAC 7.7 4.1 0.9
14 Terance Mann LAC 7.4 4.0 2.1
15 Davion Mitchell SAC 6.3 1.7 2.4
16 Daniel Theis LAC 5.6 4.0 1.0
17 Chris Duarte SAC 4.9 2.3 0.9
18 JaVale McGee SAC 4.9 4.1 0.8
19 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 4.8 2.3 0.6
20 Colby Jones SAC 3.9 1.2 0.6
21 Keon Ellis SAC 3.9 2.0 0.8
22 Kobe Brown LAC 3.7 2.1 0.6
23 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.5 2.3 0.9
24 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.0 1.9 0.7
25 Amir Coffey LAC 2.1 1.1 0.7
26 Jordan Ford SAC 2.1 0.6 0.3
27 Jalen Slawson SAC 1.4 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.