NBA games

HOU @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
124–134
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU26333827124
DEN41353226134

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home DEN
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 34 26 6 9
Alperen Sengun S 28 22 7 4
Jabari Smith Jr. S 32 15 7 2
Jeff Green 22 12 2 2
Dillon Brooks S 23 11 1 2
Aaron Holiday S 35 9 3 5
Cam Whitmore 6 8 2 0
Jock Landale 14 6 1 0
Reggie Bullock Jr. 12 6 1 0
Tari Eason 17 4 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 33 32 10 15
Michael Porter Jr. S 34 30 10 5
Jamal Murray S 22 16 6 6
Reggie Jackson 24 14 2 2
Justin Holiday S 27 11 3 4
Christian Braun 19 11 3 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 32 10 1 2
Zeke Nnaji 18 7 3 0
DeAndre Jordan 6 2 1 0
Braxton Key 3 1 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Michael Porter Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Michael Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
14%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
11%
3 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
4 Reggie Jackson DEN
10%
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
9%
6 Jalen Green HOU
9%
7 Dillon Brooks HOU
8%
8 DeAndre Jordan DEN
8%
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
89%
Jumper
3%
Layup
5%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 31.4 13.0 10.1
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 23.9 10.1 5.8
3 Jalen Green HOU 21.0 4.6 3.6
4 Reggie Jackson DEN 17.0 3.8 5.2
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 16.6 7.2 1.6
6 Jamal Murray DEN 15.4 3.0 5.9
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.0 7.5 1.4
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 12.4 2.6 3.4
9 Dillon Brooks HOU 11.9 3.2 1.6
10 Christian Braun DEN 8.7 3.5 1.4
11 Tari Eason HOU 7.7 6.0 1.0
12 Aaron Holiday HOU 6.9 2.1 1.9
13 DeAndre Jordan DEN 6.7 5.0 2.5
14 Jeff Green HOU 5.7 2.4 0.7
15 Cam Whitmore HOU 5.6 1.7 0.5
16 Julian Strawther DEN 5.6 1.7 1.2
17 Justin Holiday DEN 5.0 1.8 1.0
18 Nate Williams HOU 4.1 1.4 0.3
19 Peyton Watson DEN 4.0 2.1 0.8
20 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.8 2.0 0.7
21 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.5 2.3 0.6
22 Braxton Key DEN 3.0 2.0 1.1
23 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.8 1.0 0.7
24 Collin Gillespie DEN 2.5 0.9 0.8
25 Jermaine Samuels Jr. HOU 2.1 1.2 0.4
26 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.1 2.1 0.5
27 Nate Hinton HOU 2.0 1.0 0.3
28 Jock Landale HOU 1.6 1.7 0.4
29 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 1.4 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.