NBA games

PHI @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
114–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI24243333114
NO39293422124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home NO
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 38 33 1 3
De'Anthony Melton S 30 17 3 6
Tobias Harris S 29 12 4 2
Robert Covington 30 12 7 1
Patrick Beverley 21 11 1 7
Paul Reed 27 9 4 5
Marcus Morris Sr. S 17 7 3 2
Mo Bamba 14 6 4 0
KJ Martin 17 4 2 2
Nicolas Batum S 14 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 33 33 8 6
CJ McCollum S 28 20 4 5
Jonas Valanciunas S 32 19 6 3
Jordan Hawkins 24 16 5 2
Brandon Ingram S 35 15 4 6
Herbert Jones S 33 7 3 6
Jose Alvarado 9 5 2 1
Naji Marshall 19 4 3 3
Dyson Daniels 14 4 4 1
Cody Zeller 13 1 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Ingram · Layup (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Brandon Ingram makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Joel Embiid PHI
15%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
11%
3 Zion Williamson NO
11%
4 Jonas Valanciunas NO
10%
5 Brandon Ingram NO
10%
6 Tobias Harris PHI
9%
7 CJ McCollum NO
8%
8 De'Anthony Melton PHI
7%
9 Herbert Jones NO
7%
10 Dyson Daniels NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
58%
Jumper
12%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 31.3 11.3 7.0
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 25.8 4.4 6.5
3 Brandon Ingram NO 25.7 5.0 5.7
4 Zion Williamson NO 25.1 6.0 5.8
5 Tobias Harris PHI 18.5 5.8 3.0
6 CJ McCollum NO 17.9 3.6 4.8
7 Jonas Valanciunas NO 15.6 9.4 3.0
8 De'Anthony Melton PHI 15.2 4.3 3.2
9 Jordan Hawkins NO 14.2 4.2 2.4
10 Herbert Jones NO 13.0 4.2 3.4
11 Dyson Daniels NO 10.7 5.7 4.6
12 Naji Marshall NO 9.3 4.3 2.3
13 Nicolas Batum PHI 7.5 3.9 1.7
14 Jose Alvarado NO 7.1 2.3 2.1
15 Robert Covington PHI 5.7 3.9 1.1
16 Paul Reed PHI 5.2 3.9 0.9
17 Patrick Beverley PHI 4.6 2.3 1.6
18 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 4.3 2.6 1.0
19 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI 4.1 1.8 0.7
20 Cody Zeller NO 3.4 3.8 1.5
21 Mo Bamba PHI 3.2 2.1 0.5
22 KJ Martin PHI 3.1 1.4 0.6
23 Kira Lewis Jr. NO 2.8 0.8 1.3
24 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 2.7 1.2 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.