NBA games

UTAH @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
91105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH2517252491
MEM24362817105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home MEM
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
John Collins S 29 17 4 1
Jordan Clarkson S 27 12 3 5
Simone Fontecchio S 25 12 4 4
Walker Kessler 28 9 8 2
Collin Sexton 22 9 1 3
Keyonte George S 24 8 3 2
Talen Horton-Tucker 24 5 4 3
Ochai Agbaji 21 5 4 3
Luka Samanic 6 5 2 0
Kelly Olynyk 18 5 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 35 20 6 1
David Roddy S 25 19 6 1
Desmond Bane S 36 17 7 9
Ziaire Williams 25 15 8 0
Derrick Rose S 27 14 4 9
Santi Aldama 25 11 4 1
Bismack Biyombo S 30 6 6 2
Vince Williams Jr. 20 3 8 2
Jaylen Nowell 18 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
David Roddy · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"David Roddy makes 26-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jordan Clarkson UTAH
13%
2 Desmond Bane MEM
12%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
12%
4 John Collins UTAH
12%
5 Bismack Biyombo MEM
10%
6 Santi Aldama MEM
10%
7 Keyonte George UTAH
9%
8 Omer Yurtseven UTAH
8%
9 Jacob Gilyard MEM
7%
10 Simone Fontecchio UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
31%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Desmond Bane MEM 23.9 4.6 6.2
2 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 22.4 3.5 5.1
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 18.7 5.4 2.1
4 Santi Aldama MEM 15.2 5.8 2.2
5 John Collins UTAH 14.6 8.0 1.2
6 Keyonte George UTAH 13.0 3.5 5.9
7 Collin Sexton UTAH 11.6 3.1 3.5
8 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 9.7 6.3 3.9
9 Walker Kessler UTAH 9.7 8.2 1.0
10 Bismack Biyombo MEM 9.6 8.1 1.9
11 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 9.0 3.2 3.9
12 Derrick Rose MEM 8.3 2.1 3.2
13 Ziaire Williams MEM 7.4 3.2 1.6
14 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 7.0 3.5 1.2
15 David Roddy MEM 7.0 3.6 1.3
16 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 6.6 2.5 1.0
17 Jacob Gilyard MEM 5.9 1.7 3.2
18 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 5.0 3.7 0.8
19 John Konchar MEM 4.3 3.3 1.6
20 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 4.1 2.5 0.9
21 Kenneth Lofton Jr. MEM 3.2 1.5 1.0
22 Jaylen Nowell MEM 2.7 1.3 0.9
23 Luka Samanic UTAH 2.0 1.3 0.5
24 Shaquille Harrison MEM 2.0 2.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.